The last six months have seen clinical trial failures for a number of high-profile development programs including Eli Lilly’s disease-modifying therapy (DMT) solanezumab, Lundbeck/Otsuka’s symptomatic therapy idalopirdine, and most recently Merck’s DMT verubecestat in mild to moderate (a trial in prodromal AD continues).
Despite the seemingly insurmountable challenge of bringing a drug for AD to market, pipeline activity in the space is as strong as ever, given the enormous market potential. DRG’s Disease Landscape & Forecast: Alzheimer’s Disease report projects substantial growth in the AD market, which could eclipse $30 billion in 2025. Our model assumes the launch of a wide range of emerging therapies, including as many as six premium-priced DMTs, though there is no guarantee any of these agents will launch. Indeed, the failure of Merck’s oral BACE inhibitor in the EPOCH study puts its first-to-market launch prospects in jeopardy, and any delay or termination could have meaningful repercussions on future market dynamics.
Key findings from Disease Landscape & Forecast: Alzheimer’s Disease: