MARKET OUTLOOK

Pancreatic cancer is a life-threatening disease with a survival rate of less than 10% and with no improvements in the last 40 years. Owing to the lack of rapid diagnostics, the disease quickly spreads to other parts of the body, resulting in a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. First-line treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer is dominated by chemotherapeutic agents such as gemcitabine and Abraxane, with limited efficacy. Tarceva is the only targeted therapy approved for pancreatic cancer. This report presents a detailed analysis of the goals of pancreatic cancer treatment in the locally advanced and metastatic settings. We assess how current therapies perform on key drug attributes and measure the impact of drug attributes on physicians’ prescribing behavior. We also review which unmet needs novel therapies should address to distinguish themselves from their rivals and maximize uptake.

QUESTIONS ANSWERED

  • What are the treatment drivers and goals for locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer?
  • What are the key influencers of treatment decisions and the hidden opportunities that developers could leverage?
  • How do current therapies, such as Ipsen / Servier’s Onivyde, Roche / Genentech’s Tarceva, and chemotherapy regimens, perform on key clinical drug attributes for this patient population?
  • What are the prevailing areas of unmet need and opportunity in locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer?
  • What trade-offs across different clinical attributes and price are acceptable to U.S. and European oncologists for a new treatment for first-line metastatic pancreatic cancer?

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

Unmet Need supports clinical development decisions by identifying key attributes and assessing areas of unmet need for a specific disease or subpopulation. Based on surveys with U.S. and European physicians, this report provides insight into key treatment drivers and goals, the performance of current therapies, and the remaining commercial opportunities. Two market scenarios are profiled in detail by DRG experts, and additional customized market scenarios can be evaluated with the corresponding TPP simulator.

Markets covered: United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany

Primary research: Survey of 60 U.S. and 30 European medical oncologists fielded in February 2019

Key companies: Eli Lilly, Genentech / Roche, Celgene, Merck, Ipsen / Servier

Key drugs: Gemcitabine, FOLFIRINOX, Capecitabine, Tarceva, Abraxane, Keytruda, Onivyde

Table of contents

  • Pancreatic Cancer - Unmet Need - Detailed, Expanded Analysis (US/EU) Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Adenocarcinoma
    • Introduction
      • Overview
      • Methodology
      • Rationale for Treatment Drivers and Goals Selection
        • Efficacy
        • Safety and Tolerability
        • Convenience of Administration
      • Rationale for Drug Selection
        • Regimens for Pancreatic Cancer
    • Treatment Drivers and Goals
      • Key Findings: Attribute Importance
      • Relative Importance of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Attributes to Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer
      • Importance of Efficacy Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Importance of Efficacy Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Importance of Safety and Tolerability Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Importance of Safety and Tolerability Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Importance of Convenience of Administration Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Importance of Convenience of Administration Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Key Findings: Stated vs. Derived Importance
      • Stated vs. Derived Importance of Key Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Stated vs. Derived Importance of Key Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
    • Product Performance Against Treatment Drivers and Goals
      • Key Findings
      • Overall Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Overall Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Mean Overall Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer: United States and Europe
      • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer Across Select Efficacy Attributes: United States
      • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer Across Select Efficacy Attributes: Europe
      • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer Across Select Safety and Tolerability Attributes: United States
      • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer Across Select Safety and Tolerability Attributes: Europe
      • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer Across Select Convenience of Administration Attributes: United States
      • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer Across Select Convenience of Administration Attributes: Europe
    • Assessment of Unmet Need
      • Key Findings: Unmet Need in Pancreatic Cancer
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Satisfaction with the Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer on Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Factors: United States
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Satisfaction with the Performance of Key Therapies for Pancreatic Cancer on Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Factors: Europe
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Efficacy Attributes in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Efficacy Attributes in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Safety and Tolerability Attributes in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Safety and Tolerability Attributes in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Convenience of Administration Attributes in Pancreatic Cancer: United States
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Convenience of Administration Attributes in Pancreatic Cancer: Europe
      • Key Findings: Unmet Need in Pancreatic Cancer and Related Indications
      • Surveyed Medical Oncologists' Ascribed Level of Unmet Need in Pancreatic Cancer and Related Indications: Europe
    • Opportunity Analysis
      • Areas of Opportunity in the Pancreatic Cancer Market and Emerging Therapy Insights
        • Opportunity: A New Therapy with Improved Efficacy Attributes
        • Opportunity: A Novel Therapy with an Improved Safety and Tolerability Profile
        • Opportunity: A Novel Agent with Improved Convenience of Administration
    • Target Product Profiles
      • Assessing Drug Development Opportunities
      • Target Product Profile Methodology
        • Attributes and Attribute Levels
        • Assigned Prohibitions for the Conjoint Module
      • Attribute Importance and Part-Worth Utilities
        • First-Line Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Target Product Profile: Attribute Importance
        • Median Overall Survival: Months
        • Median Progression-Free Survival: Months
        • Objective Response Rate: % of Patients
        • Incidence of Grade 3-4 Neutropenia: % of Patients
        • Incidence of Grade 3-4 Fatigue: % of Patients
        • Incidence of Grade 3-4 Diarrhea: % of Patients
        • Price per Treatment Course in USD
      • Conjoint Analysis-Based Simulations of Market Scenarios
        • Pancreatic Cancer Market Simulations: Share of Preference of Target Product Profiles Included in Scenario 1
        • Pancreatic Cancer Market Simulations: Likelihood to Prescribe Target Product Profiles Included in Scenario 1
        • Pancreatic Cancer Market Simulations: Target Product Profiles Included in Scenario 1
        • Pancreatic Cancer Market Simulations: Share of Preference of Target Product Profiles Included in Scenario 2
        • Pancreatic Cancer Market Simulations: Likelihood to Prescribe Target Product Profiles Included in Scenario 2
        • Pancreatic Cancer Market Simulations: Target Product Profiles Included in Scenario 2
    • Appendix
      • Key Abbreviations
      • Bibliography

Author(s): Ananya Sadhu, Ph.D

Ananya Sadhu, Ph.D., is an analyst with the oncology team at Decision Resources Group with expertise in multiple oncology indications including pancreatic cancer.

Prior to joining Decision Resources Group, Dr. Ananya Sadhu was a postdoctoral fellow at National Centre of Biological Sciences, Bangalore, where she studied the role of chromatin architecture in regulating gene expression in breast cancer. Ananya holds a Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from National Institute of Immunology, New Delhi. She also worked as a Scientific Officer with Arvind Remedies Ltd., a pharmaceutical company, where she coordinated various stages of non-clinical / clinical research activities for drug development of a U.S. patented polyherbal formulation.


Related Reports

Pancreatic Cancer - Landscape & Forecast - Disease Landscape & Forecast

Pancreatic cancer is a notoriously aggressive and hard-to-treat malignancy; the five-year survival rate is less than 10%. Treatment options for pancreatic cancer are limited to surgery, radiation,...

View Details