The type 2 diabetes (T2D) drug market is expected to expand, fueled by a rich pipeline of agents. However, growth will be tempered because these emerging therapies will be predominantly later-to-market entrants of existing drug classes or combination treatments. Owing to the increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) and kidney disease associated with T2D, a high unmet need exists for affordable drugs that can safely and effectively manage this disease in the long term. The sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors, such as AstraZeneca’s Farxiga / Forxiga, and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, are offering hope for greater CV and renal benefits. However, the physical and financial impacts of T2D continue to increase, highlighting the need for more-effective and more-affordable drug treatments.

QUESTIONS ANSWERED

  • What are the treatment drivers and goals for type 2 diabetes?
  • What drug attributes are key influencers, which have limited impact, and which are hidden opportunities?
  • How do current therapies perform on key treatment drivers and goals for type 2 diabetes?
  • What are the prevailing areas of unmet need and opportunity in type 2 diabetes?
  • What trade-offs across different clinical attributes and price are acceptable to U.S. and European endocrinologists for a hypothetical new type 2 diabetes drug?

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

Unmet Need provides quantitative insight into U.S. and European physician perceptions of key treatment drivers and goals and the current level of unmet need for a specific disease. Commercial opportunities are analyzed, and the extent to which emerging therapies may capitalize on these opportunities is evaluated.

Markets covered: United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany

Primary research: Survey of 60 U.S. and 32 European endocrinologists fielded in March 2020

Key companies: AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Merck, Novo Nordisk

Key drugs: Farxiga / Forxiga, Invokana, Januvia, Jardiance, Rybelsus, Trulicity, Victoza

Table of contents

  • Type 2 Diabetes - Unmet Need - Detailed, Expanded Analysis (US/EU)
    • Executive Summary
      • Unmet Need - Type 2 Diabetes - Executive Summary - June 2020
    • Introduction
      • Overview
      • Methodology
      • Rationale for Treatment Drivers and Goals Selection
        • Rationale for Drug Selection
          • Products for Type 2 Diabetes and Rationale for Drug Selection
      • Treatment Drivers and Goals
        • Key Findings: Attribute Importance
        • Relative Importance of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Attributes to Surveyed Endocrinologists' Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes
        • Importance of Efficacy Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Importance of Efficacy Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Importance of Convenience of Administration Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Importance of Convenience of Administration Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Importance of Nonclinical Factors to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Importance of Nonclinical Factors to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Key Findings: Stated vs. Derived Importance
        • Stated vs. Derived Importance of Key Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Stated vs. Derived Importance of Key Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Attributes to Prescribing Decisions in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
      • Product Performance Against Treatment Drivers and Goals
        • Key Findings
        • Overall Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Overall Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Mean Overall Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes: United States and Europe
        • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes Across Select Efficacy Attributes: United States
        • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes Across Select Efficacy Attributes: Europe
        • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes Across Select Convenience of Administration Attributes: United States
        • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes Across Select Convenience of Administration Attributes: Europe
        • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes Across Select Nonclinical Attributes: United States
        • Relative Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes Across Select Nonclinical Attributes: Europe
      • Assessment of Unmet Need
        • Key Findings: Unmet Need in Type 2 Diabetes
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Satisfaction with the Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes on Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Factors: United States
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Satisfaction with the Performance of Key Therapies for Type 2 Diabetes on Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability, Convenience of Administration, and Nonclinical Factors: Europe
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Efficacy Attributes in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Efficacy Attributes in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Convenience of Administration Attributes in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Convenience of Administration Attributes in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Nonclinical Factors in Type 2 Diabetes: United States
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need Across Key Nonclinical Factors in Type 2 Diabetes: Europe
        • Key Findings: Unmet Need in Type 2 Diabetes and Related Indications
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need in Type 2 Diabetes and Related Indications: United States
        • Surveyed Endocrinologists’ Ascribed Level of Unmet Need in Type 2 Diabetes and Related Indications: Europe
      • Opportunity Analysis
        • Areas of Opportunity in the Type 2 Diabetes Market and Emerging Therapy Insights
          • Opportunity: An Agent with Better Weight-Loss Efficacy
          • Opportunity: An Agent with Benefits in a Wider Range of Cardiovascular Diseases
          • Opportunity: an Agent Targeting Novel Pathways
      • Target Product Profiles
        • Assessing Drug Development Opportunities
        • Target Product Profile Methodology
          • Attributes and Attribute Levels
        • Attribute Importance and Part-Worth Utilities
          • Type 2 Diabetes Target Product Profile: Attribute Importance
          • Mean Reduction in HbA1c Levels from Baseline After One Year
          • Change in Body Weight After One Year
          • Reduction in Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event (MACE) Rates vs. Placebo
          • Reduction in Risk of Progression to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) vs. Placebo
          • Reduction in Fasting Plasma Glucagon Levels vs. Placebo
          • Route of Administration
          • Price per Day
        • Conjoint Analysis-Based Simulation of a Market Scenario
          • Type 2 Diabetes Market Simulation: Share of Preference of Target Product Profiles Included in the Market Scenario
          • Type 2 Diabetes Market Simulation: Likelihood to Prescribe Target Product Profiles Included in the Market Scenario
          • Type 2 Diabetes Market Simulation: Target Product Profiles Included in the Market Scenario
      • Appendix
        • Key Abbreviations
        • Bibliography

    Author(s): Kerri Brown, M Pharm

    Kerri Brown, M.Pharm., is an analyst with Decision Resources Group, focused on finding stories in data and developing products to inform strategic decisions in the hemophilia and diabetes spaces. Kerri holds a master of pharmacy degree from King’s College London with 1st class honors. Prior to joining DRG, she was a national clinical educator at a UK diabetes start-up, and has extensive experience of diabetes medical devices. Kerri has worked at AstraZeneca, and as a pharmacist in a national psychiatric clinical trial center. In addition to her work at DRG, Kerri is a practicing pharmacist with extensive clinical experience of UK physician prescribing in diabetes.


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