Last Updated 16 September 2014
Owing to its large population, the treatment of breast cancer remains an active area of research with a rich and diverse product pipeline. A competitive current therapies market means that barriers to entry are high, and relatively few of the many therapies in development will enter this lucrative market. Treatment is currently determined based on hormone-receptor and HER2 expression, and successful therapies are often those tailored to specific subpopulations.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  • Increasing treatment options for HER2-positive breast cancer mean that the historical treatment algorithm for these patients is being overhauled. How have recent approvals of pertuzumab (Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Perjeta) and trastuzumab emtansine (Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Kadcyla [T-DM1]) affected the HER2-positive treatment algorithm? How will future label extensions of pertuzumab and T-DM1 affect treatment dynamics? How has subcutaneous trastuzumab been received in Europe? How have physicians reacted to recent clinical data released for Puma Biotechnology’s neratinib?

  • We forecast the launch of a new drug class, CDK4/6 inhibitors, for hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer. How do physicians anticipate using these agents? What key differences do experts see between different CDK4/6 inhibitors? How will the entry of these agents affect the use of other therapies in this setting, such as everolimus (Novartis’s Afinitor)?

  • Four PARP inhibitors have entered Phase III development for BRCA1/2-mutated breast cancer. What impact will PARP inhibitors have on the breast cancer market? What factors differentiate each of the PARP inhibitors in development? How do interviewed experts anticipate prescribing PARP inhibitors in the future?

Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 31 country-specific interviews with experts.

Epidemiology: Incidence of stages I, IIa, IIb, IIIa, IIIb, IIIc, and IV breast cancer; incidence of hormonal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of nonhormonal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of HER2-positive breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of triple-negative breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of premenopausal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of postmenopausal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis.

Population segments in market forecast: Adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR+/HER2- premenopausal, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR+/HER2+ postmenopausal, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR+/HER2+ premenopausal, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR-/HER2+, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR-/HER2- (triple-negative), first-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, second-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, third- and subsequent-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, first-line metastatic HER2+ (HR+ and HR-), second-line metastatic HER2+ (HR+ and HR-), third- and subsequent-line metastatic HER2+ (HR+ and HR-), first-line metastatic HR-/HER2- (triple-negative), second-line metastatic HR-/HER2- (triple-negative), third- and subsequent-line metastatic HR-/HER2- (triple-negative).

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 42 drugs; Phase III: 17 drugs; registered: 26 drugs.

Market forecast features: Using a proprietary patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast drug-treatable population sizes and drug sales for all patient segments annually through 2023.

Author(s): Amy Duval, M.Res.
Alison Isherwood, M.Sc., Ph.D.

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