Last Updated 15 October 2015
The type 2 diabetes therapy market will rapidly expand over our 2014-2024 study period, fueled by the disease’s increasing prevalence and a high unmet need for drugs that can effectively control the disease in the long term. A rich pipeline of novel agents is expected to launch, promoting sustained market growth. Among the drug classes expected to undergo the most rapid growth is the sodium glucose cotransporter (SGLT)-2 inhibitors, led by Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma’s canagliflozin (Invokana), AstraZeneca’s dapagliflozin (Forxiga/Farxiga), and Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly’s empagliflozin (Jardiance). However, these and other emerging therapies will face major challenges, including reimbursement hurdles and an increasingly stringent regulatory environment. Nevertheless, as the patient population expands and significant needs remain, commercial opportunity will continue to grow.
Questions Answered in This Report:
- Results from the EMPA-REG OUTCOME CVOT demonstrate that Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly’s empagliflozin (Jardiance) is the first antidiabetic therapy to demonstrate a reduction in cardiovascular events compared with standard of care. What is the anticipated impact of this result on physicians’ anticipated prescribing of the SGLT-2 inhibitors? Are the other marketed SGLT-2 inhibitors likely to benefit due to their shared mechanism of action? How will this finding influence the prescribing of other drug classes such as the DPP-IV inhibitors?
- The first biosimilar insulin, Eli Lilly/Boehringer Ingelheim’s insulin glargine (Basaglar/Abasaglar) has launched in Europe and Japan, with additional biosimilar entrants expected to launch during the forecast period. How do the experts view the uptake of the biosimilar insulin analogues versus established insulin analogues such as Sanofi’s insulin glargine (Lantus) and Novo Nordisk’s insulin detemir (Levemir)? How will novel insulin analogues, such as Sanofi’s insulin glargine U300 (Toujeo), perform against the entrance of these less-expensive biosimilars?
- The GLP-1 receptor agonist class will also witness significant expansion over the 2014-2024 period as more treatment options offer dosing advantages over the first-to-market agents exenatide (AstraZeneca’s Byetta) and liraglutide (Novo Nordisk’s Victoza). What is the anticipated uptake of dulaglutide (Eli Lilly’s Trulicity) following the results of the AWARD-6 trial? What impact will Intarcia Therapeutics’ GLP-1 receptor agonist implant, ITCA-650, have as the first non-injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist to launch? How do physicians view Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide, the first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist to reach Phase III development?
- The DPP-IV inhibitor class will continue to experience strong growth over the study period, until anticipated genericization of the class toward the end of the forecast period. Are once-weekly DPP-IV inhibitors likely to receive significant uptake? How will the availability of generic DPP-IV inhibitors alter physicians’ prescribing behaviors? What is the potential impact of Actavis’s approval of generic saxagliptin on the DPP-IV inhibitor market? ?
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 31 country-specific interviews with thought leaders.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of type 2 diabetes, segmented by body mass index (BMI) status and renal impairment status. Prevalence of prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance [IGT]).
Population segments in market forecast: Type 2 diabetes.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 21 drugs; Phase III: 14 drugs; registered: 2 drugs. Coverage of several select preclinical and Phase I products/drug classes.
Catherine Vasilakis-Scaramozza, Ph.D., M.P.H.