Last Updated 16 December 2014
In late age-related macular degeneration (AMD), vision deficits are noticeable, often debilitating, and can be a precursor to blindness. The availability of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitor therapies delivered via intravitreal injection revolutionized the treatment of the wet form of late AMD (wet AMD) such that the majority of treated patients now maintain visual acuity. VEGF inhibitors will continue to dominate wet AMD treatment through the end of the 2013-2023 forecast period, but pipeline agents expected to launch and be incorporated into the treatment algorithm may bring about improved visual outcomes and/or a reduction in dosing frequency. Unlike wet AMD, no therapies are approved for treating late dry AMD, i.e., geographic atrophy (GA). The anticipated launch and subsequent uptake of first-to-market GA therapies toward the end of the study period is expected to have a dramatic effect on the AMD market, similar to the rapid market expansion observed upon the introduction of VEGF inhibitors into the treatment of wet AMD.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  • The late AMD population is expected to grow over the forecast period, and in parallel, diagnosis and treatment rates are expected to increase, in particular upon the introduction of first-to-market GA therapies. To what extent will a larger patient pool impact the AMD market? How will the introduction and uptake of first-to-market GA therapies affect AMD treatment and drug sales?

  • We forecast that, by 2023, two new agents will launch for wet AMD: Ophthotech/Novartis’s E-10030 (Fovista) and Allergan’s abicipar pegol (anti-VEGF DARPin). To what extent and how do physicians anticipate incorporating these novel agents into their medical practice?

  • Market access pressure is a given in AMD, and some European governments pursue cost savings via formalizing the use of off-label, cheaper therapeutic alternatives to approved agents in wet AMD. How extensive is this trend? How will it affect drug sales and medical practice over the study decade?

Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 29 country-specific interviews with experts in the field, physician prescriber surveys.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of early and late AMD; prevalence of wet AMD; prevalence of GA; diagnosis and drug-treatment rates of wet AMD and GA.

Population segments in market forecast: Wet AMD, GA.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 17 drugs; Phase III: 4 drugs; preregistration: 0 drugs; registered: 5 drugs. Coverage of 11 select preclinical and Phase I products.

Author(s): Nadja Rozovsky, Ph.D.
Donal Minihan, M.V.B., Ph.D.

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