Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), although a rare disease, is one of the most common interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). It is characterized by an irreversible loss of lung function, leading to high morbidity and mortality; most patients die within three to five years following diagnosis. Interviewed experts contend that the etiology of IPF is unclear, but accumulating evidence suggests that it likely arises as a result of epithelial injury followed by abnormal wound healing. Roche’s Esbriet was the first disease-modifying therapy (DMT) approved for adults with mild to moderate IPF, followed soon after by Boehringer Ingelheim’s Ofev—setting the stage for fierce competition in the IPF therapy market. We explore this evolving space, analyzing the clinical and commercial outlook for current and emerging drugs and identifying areas of pressing unmet need. We also assess different market scenarios in which a novel agent is approved as a monotherapy, as an add-on therapy, or both.


  • How will the size of the IPF population change through 2027? How large are the key subpopulations? What percentage of the IPF population receives drug treatment?
  • How do interviewed experts view the clinical profiles of Esbriet and Ofev, and what factors drive or constrain their use? What are the most pressing unmet clinical needs in the management of IPF, according to experts?
  • Which emerging therapies do IPF experts consider most promising? If approved, how would emerging therapies influence the management of IPF and the market positions of Ofev and Esbriet? What is the commercial potential of a new monotherapy or an add-on therapy?

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