DRG Epidemiology's coverage of small-cell lung cancer comprises epidemiological estimates of key patient populations across 45 countries worldwide. We report both the incidence and prevalence of small-cell lung cancer for each country, as well as annualized case counts projected to the national population.

In addition to forecasting incident and prevalent patient populations, the number of drug-treatment opportunities at specific lines of therapy are also forecast across the world.

DRG Epidemiology's small-cell lung cancer forecast will answer the following questions:

  • How will changes in the levels of exposure to known risk or protective factors affect the number of people diagnosed with small cell lung cancer per year?
  • In developing countries, what impact will economic growth and development have on the number of people diagnosed with small-cell lung cancer per year?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of small-cell lung cancer over the forecast period?

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is also provided for full transparency into research and methods. In addition, we provide a graphical depiction of the patient flow between or within different disease states for the countries considered in this report. These patient flow diagrams are provided at the regional level, but may be requested for any specific country or forecast year.

In addition to the total number of cases for each forecast year, DRG Epidemiology also provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following small-cell lung cancer subpopulations:

  • Drug-treatable prevalent cases by metastatic status
  • Diagnosed extensive first-line drug-treatable population
  • Diagnosed incident cases by stage distribution status
  • Diagnosed limited drug-treatable population
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by drug treatment potential status
  • Limited SCLC by resectability status

Note: coverage may vary by country.

Table of contents

  • Small Cell Lung Cancer - Epidemiology - Emerging Markets
    • Introduction
      • Key Findings
        • Overview
          • Diagnosed Incidence of Small-Cell Lung Cancer per 100,000 People of All Ages in 2017 and 2027
          • Relative Sizes of the Contributing Factors to the Trend in Diagnosed Incident Cases of Small-Cell Lung Cancer Over the Next Ten Years
          • Analysis of the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Small-Cell Lung Cancer in 2017 by Disease Stage
      • Epidemiology Data
      • Methods
        • Diagnosed Incident Cases
        • Stage Distribution of Small-Cell Lung Cancer
        • Recurrent Incident Cases of Small-Cell Lung Cancer
        • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases
        • Drug-Treatable Population and Percentage Drug-Treated
      • Reference Materials
        • Literature Review
          • Studies Included in the Analysis of Small-Cell Lung Cancer
          • Studies Excluded from the Analysis of Small Cell Lung Cancer
        • Risk/Protective Factors
          • Risk/Protective Factors for Small-Cell Lung Cancer
        • Bibliography

    Author(s): Ema Rodrigues, DSc, MPH; Nishant Kumar, MPH

    Ema is an epidemiologist with expertise in forecasting incident and prevalent populations within oncology, as well as some cardiovascular indications such as venous thromboembolism. She has significant experience with statistical methods such as multivariate linear regression, conditional logistic regression, principal components analysis, mixed models, hierarchical modeling, and path analysis to account for the complex relationships among various predictors of health outcomes, particularly correlated variables.

    She completed her master’s and doctoral degree (MPH, D.Sc.) in Environmental Health at Boston University School of Public Health, where she worked on projects investigating significant predictors of various health outcomes including central nervous system cancer, cognitive function, and birth outcomes.


    Nishant is a senior epidemiologist and head of oncology within the epidemiology team at Decision Resources Group. He also covers some CNS diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. His key interests are developing interactive patient flows, and modelling disease progression to forecast commercially relevant drug-treatable incident and prevalent populations. Nishant also spends a lot of time collaborating with clients to help answer more specific questions through custom work and consulting projects.

    His qualifications include an MSc in Public Health with specialization in epidemiology and statistics from King’s College London, and a BSc in Medical Studies from the University of Birmingham.

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