The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Forecaster is a fully customizable SEIR(susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model that allows users to develop scenario-based global COVID-19 forecasts for up to two years from initial outbreak. Base assumptions used in this model have been tested and developed by DRG’s Epidemiology team using a semi-mechanistic methodology, running thousands of simulations with plausible parameter ranges set out by the current literature and benchmarked using daily reported COVID-19-related mortality data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) using goodness-of-fit analysis.
Forecasting COVID-19 is challenging for several reasons, including the uncertainty in effect size and duration of local nonpharmaceutical interventions and the timing and efficacy of different treatments entering the market. Therefore, DRG’s COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster is flexible by design. Each variable used in the model is fully adjustable, and the tool allows the addition of up to five interventions. The COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster reports the following metrics in a tabular form, as well as in a variety of data visualization graphics:
- Total case estimates (everyone infected with the virus, including laboratory-confirmed and -unconfirmed cases).
- Mortality associated with COVID-19.
- Adjusted infection fatality rate to allow cross-country comparisons.
- Incident and cumulative hospitalizations.
- Incident and cumulative intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.
- Available in both total and age-stratified formats.
The COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster allows users to export diagrams and charts as image files that can easily be incorporated into internal or investor/shareholder material.
- Coronavirus COVID-19 - Epidemiology - Coronavirus COVID-19 Forecaster
- COVID-19 Global Epidemiology Forecaster
Author(s): Oliver Blandy, M.Sc.; Alexandre Vo Dupuy, Pharm.D., M.Sc.; Nishant Kumar, M.P.H.
Oliver Blandy, M.Sc., is a senior epidemiologist at DRG, part of Clarivate. Before joining DRG, Oliver worked as a research assistant for Imperial College London, where he was the lead for several studies within an NIRH-funded research group investigating healthcare-associated infections and antimicrobial resistance. He holds an M.Sc. from the University of Bristol, where he specialized in nutrition, physical activity, and public health. He also holds a B.Sc. in chemistry and a postgraduate certificate in education, both from the University of Bristol.
Alexandre Vo Dupuy, M.Sc., Pharm.D., is a senior epidemiologist at DRG, part of Clarivate. Prior to joining DRG, he worked in the fields of consulting and real-world evidence and at a major pharmaceutical company. He obtained his doctor of pharmacy from Descartes University in Paris and his master’s degree in pharmacoepidemiology from the University of Bordeaux.
Nishant Kumar, M.P.H., is an associate director on the Epidemiology team at DRG, part of Clarivate. His areas of expertise are oncology and CNS diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. His key interests in oncology are modeling disease progression and drug-treatable incident and prevalent populations. Prior to joining DRG, Mr. Kumar sized patient populations for rare and niche diseases, such as graft-versus-host disease and Duchenne muscular dystrophy. He earned his M.P.H. with a concentration in epidemiology and statistics from King’s College in London and a B.Sc. (Honors) in medical studies from the University of Birmingham.