DRG Epidemiology's influenza forecast will answer the following questions:

  • Of all people with influenza, how many in each country across the major mature pharmaceutical markets have been formally diagnosed?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of influenza over the forecast period?

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is also provided for full transparency into research and methods.

DRG Epidemiology provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following influenza patient populations:

  • Influenza tTotal eEvent rRates.
  • Influenza tTotal pPrevalence.
  • Total eEvent rRates by dDiagnosis.

Note: Ccoverage may vary by country and region.

Table of contents

  • Influenza - Epidemiology - Mature Markets
    • Introduction
      • Key Findings
        • Key Updates
          • Introduction Graphics
            • Event Rate of Influenza per 1,000 Among People of All Ages in 2018 and 2028
            • Relative Sizes of the Contributing Factors to the Trend in Events of Influenza over the Next Ten Years
            • Analysis of Events of Influenza in 2018 by Diagnosis Status
            • Number of Events of Influenza That Will Be Avoided over the 2018-2028 Period Across the Countries Under Study
        • Epidemiology Data
        • Methods
          • Total Event Rate
          • Total Prevalent Cases
          • Percentage Diagnosed
        • Reference Materials
          • Literature Review
            • Studies Included in the Analysis of Influenza
            • Studies Excluded from the Analysis of Influenza
          • Risk/Protective Factors
            • Risk/Protective Factors for Influenza
          • Bibliography
            • Glossary

        Author(s): Mike Hughes, MSc, PhD; Ansuman Swain

        Mike joined Decision Resources as an epidemiologist in 2006. He has many years’ experience in the mathematical modeling of healthcare service delivery, cardiovascular and cancer epidemiology, biostatistics, meta-analysis and systematic reviewing.

        He has been principal author on many published articles in leading international journals in the areas of risk modeling in intensive care and cardiovascular medicine. He has also been responsible for developing national guidelines on behalf of NICE and the American College of Chest Physicians for the treatment of atrial fibrillation, stroke and hypertension. He is particularly interested in modeling patient flows in cancer and methods for forecasting disease burden in non-communicable epidemiology.

        Dr. Hughes received his Ph.D. in risk modeling in intensive care in 2003 from City University, London and is currently enrolled in a Ph.D. program in statistical causation and foundations of probability theory at the University of Nottingham.