DRG Epidemiology’s coverage of atrial fibrillation comprises epidemiological estimates of key patient populations in 45 countries worldwide. We report the prevalence of atrial fibrillation for each country, as well as annualized case counts projected to the national population.

Most patient populations in the mature pharmaceutical markets are forecast over a period of 20 years and the patient populations in the other countries under study over 10 years. In addition to forecasting prevalent patient populations, the number of drug-treatment opportunities at specific lines of therapy are forecast for the mature pharmaceutical markets.

DRG Epidemiology’s atrial fibrillation forecast answers the following questions:

  • How will changes in the levels of exposure to known risk or protective factors affect the number of people living with atrial fibrillation?
  • Of all people with atrial fibrillation, how many in each country have been formally diagnosed?
  • Of all people diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, how many in the mature pharmaceutical markets are drug-treated?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation over the forecast period?

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is also provided for full transparency into research and methods. In addition, we provide a graphical depiction of the patient flow between or within different disease states for the mature pharmaceutical markets. These patient flows are provided at the regional level but may be requested for any specific country or forecast year.

DRG Epidemiology provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following atrial fibrillation patient populations:

  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by frequency of symptoms.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of atrial fibrillation.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by CHADS2 score.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by comorbid heart failure.
  • Drug-treated prevalent cases of atrial fibrillation.
  • Non-drug-treated prevalent cases of atrial fibrillation.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by first detected event.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by comorbid hypertension.

… and many more (details available on request).

Note: Coverage may vary by country and region.​​​​​​

Table of contents

  • Atrial Fibrillation - Epidemiology - Emerging Markets Data
    • Introduction
      • Key Findings
        • Overview
          • Total Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation per 100 People Aged 40+ in 2017 and 2027
          • Relative Sizes of the Contributing Factors to the Trend in Total Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation over the Next Ten Years
          • Analysis of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation with Comorbid Valvular Heart Disease in the Countries Under Study in 2017
          • Number of Additional Total Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation Incurred over 2017-2027 in the Countries Under Study
      • Epidemiology Data
      • Methods
        • Total Prevalent Cases
        • Diagnosed Incident Cases
        • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases
        • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Subtype
        • Comorbid Heart Failure
        • Comorbid Hypertension
        • Comorbid Valvular Heart Disease
        • Stroke Risk by CHADS2 Score
        • Percentage Drug-Treated
        • Lifetime DALYs Gained
      • Reference Materials
        • Literature Review
          • Studies Included in the Analysis of Atrial Fibrillation
          • Studies Excluded from the Analysis of Atrial Fibrillation
        • Risk/Protective Factors
          • Risk/Protective Factors for Atrial Fibrillation
        • Bibliography

    Author(s): Dr. Ravdeep Kaur, MPH; Alison Isherwood, MSc, MRes, PhD

    Ravdeep Kaur started working in Decision Resources Inc. as an associate epidemiologist since December 31st, 2015.

    She performs fully documented systematic reviews of both published and grey literature on the epidemiology of assigned diseases and their risk factors to estimate incidence/prevalence over a 10-30 year period.

    She produces analyses for pharmaceutical drug developers on the descriptive epidemiology of major drug indications in mature and developing markets.

    She holds a Master’s in Public Health degree from School of Public Health, Post-Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research and a Bachelor’s in dental surgery from Rajiv Gandhi University of Health Sciences, India. She also has a Fellowship in Heath care Technology Assessment from World health Organization (WHO), India office.

     Prior to joining Decision Resources, Ravdeep worked as a Consultant in Reproductive, Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health Program in a United States Agency for International development (USAID) funded project.   

    Alison Isherwood, B.Sc., M.Res., M.Sc., Ph.D. joined Decision Resources Group in 2008, as an Epidemiologist. Alison holds a B.Sc. in Medical Microbiology, Masters by Research in the Life Sciences and a M.Sc. in Epidemiology all from the University of Edinburgh. Prior to joining Decision Resources Inc., she was working on her Ph.D. in Molecular Virology, specializing on the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, at the University of Reading. In her role at Decision Resources Group, Alison is currently an Epidemiology team lead as well as project managing custom epidemiology work in multiple therapy areas. Alison’s area of specialization at DRG is cancer, particularly breast cancer.