DRG Epidemiology's coverage of atrial fibrillation comprises epidemiological estimates of key patient populations across 45 countries worldwide. We report the prevalence of atrial fibrillation for each country, as well as annualized case counts projected to the national population.

Most patient populations are forecast over a period of 20 years for the major mature pharmaceutical markets and 10 years for the other countries covered in this report. In addition to forecasting prevalent patient populations, the number of drug-treatment opportunities at specific lines of therapy are also forecast across the major mature pharmaceutical markets.

DRG Epidemiology's atrial fibrillation forecast will answer the following questions:

  • How will changes in the levels of exposure to known risk or protective factors affect the number of people living with atrial fibrillation?
  • Of all people with atrial fibrillation, how many in each country across the world have been formally diagnosed?
  • Of all people diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, how many in each country across the major mature pharmaceutical markets are drug-treated?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation over the forecast period?

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is also provided for full transparency into research and methods. In addition, we provide a graphical depiction of the patient flow between or within different disease states for the major mature pharmaceutical markets. These patient flow diagrams are provided at the regional level, but may be requested for any specific country or forecast year.

DRG Epidemiology provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following atrial fibrillation patient populations:

  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Symptom Frequency
  • Atrial Fibrillation Diagnosed Prevalent Cases
  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases - CHA2DS2-VACs - Aug 1 2014 4:04 pm ET subpopulation(s)
  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases Heart Failure subpopulation(s)
  • Atrial Fibrillation Drug-Treated Prevalent Cases
  • Atrial Fibrillation Non-Drug-Treated Prevalent Cases
  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases - CHADS2 subpopulation(s)
  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases - First Detected Events subpopulation(s)
  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases Hypertension - Aug 6 2014 1:45 pm ET subpopulation(s)
  • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases with Heart Failure NHYA subpopulation(s)

… and many more (details available on request).

Note: coverage may vary by country and region.

Table of contents

  • Atrial Fibrillation - Epidemiology - Mature Markets Data
    • Introduction
      • Diagnosed Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation per 100 Among People Aged 40+ in 2018 and 2038
      • Relative Sizes of the Contributing Factors to the Trend in Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation over the Next 20 years
      • Analysis of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation Across the Countries Under Study in 2018 with Comorbid Valvular Heart Disease
      • The Patient Flow Diagram for Atrial Fibrillation in 2018.
      • Number of Additional Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Atrial Fibrillation in 2038 Across the Countries Under Study Due to Trends in Risk or Survival
    • Epidemiology Data
    • Methods
      • Diagnosed Incident Cases
      • Diagnosed Prevalence
      • Total Prevalent Cases
      • AF Subtype
      • Comorbid Hypertension
      • Comorbid Heart Failure
      • Comorbid Valvular Heart Disease
      • Symptomatic Paroxysms of Atrial Fibrillation
      • Diagnosed Events - Paroxysmal Progressions
      • Stroke Risk - CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VACs Scores
      • Recurrent Events of Atrial Fibrillation
      • Percentage Drug-Treated
      • Lifetime DALYs Gained
    • Reference Materials
      • Literature Review
        • Studies Included in the Analysis of Atrial Fibrillation
        • Studies Excluded from the Analysis of Atrial Fibrillation
      • Risk/Protective Factors
        • Risk/Protective Factors for Atrial Fibrillation
      • Bibliography

    Author(s): Dr. Ravdeep Kaur, MPH; Alison Isherwood, MSc, MRes, PhD

    Ravdeep Kaur started working in Decision Resources Inc. as an associate epidemiologist since December 31st, 2015.

    She performs fully documented systematic reviews of both published and grey literature on the epidemiology of assigned diseases and their risk factors to estimate incidence/prevalence over a 10-30 year period.

    She produces analyses for pharmaceutical drug developers on the descriptive epidemiology of major drug indications in mature and developing markets.

    She holds a Master’s in Public Health degree from School of Public Health, Post-Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research and a Bachelor’s in dental surgery from Rajiv Gandhi University of Health Sciences, India. She also has a Fellowship in Heath care Technology Assessment from World health Organization (WHO), India office.

     Prior to joining Decision Resources, Ravdeep worked as a Consultant in Reproductive, Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health Program in a United States Agency for International development (USAID) funded project.   

    Alison Isherwood, B.Sc., M.Res., M.Sc., Ph.D. joined Decision Resources Group in 2008, as an Epidemiologist. Alison holds a B.Sc. in Medical Microbiology, Masters by Research in the Life Sciences and a M.Sc. in Epidemiology all from the University of Edinburgh. Prior to joining Decision Resources Inc., she was working on her Ph.D. in Molecular Virology, specializing on the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, at the University of Reading. In her role at Decision Resources Group, Alison is currently an Epidemiology team lead as well as project managing custom epidemiology work in multiple therapy areas. Alison’s area of specialization at DRG is cancer, particularly breast cancer.