DRG Epidemiology’s coverage of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) comprises epidemiological estimates of key patient populations in the major mature pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan). We report both the incidence and prevalence of AD for each country and the number of drug-treatment opportunities in each market.

DRG Epidemiology’s AD forecast will answer the following questions:

  • How will changes in the levels of exposure to known risk or protective factors affect the number of people diagnosed with AD per year?
  • How will improvements in survival change the number of people living with a diagnosis of AD?
  • Of all people with AD, how many in each of the major mature pharmaceutical markets have been formally diagnosed?
  • Of all people diagnosed with AD, how many in each of the major mature pharmaceutical markets are drug-treated?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of AD over the forecast period?

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is provided for full transparency into research and methods. In addition, we depict the patient flow between or within different disease states for the United States, Europe, and Japan. These patient flow diagrams are provided at the regional level but may be requested for any specific country or forecast year.

In addition to the total number of cases for each forecast year, DRG Epidemiology provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following AD subpopulations:

  • Twenty-year total prevalent cases of asymptomatic AD.
  • Twenty-year total prevalent cases of MCI due to AD by symptoms.
  • Twenty-year total prevalent cases of symptomatic MCI due to AD by diagnosis status.
  • Total prevalent cases of AD.
  • Total prevalent cases of AD by severity (mild, moderate, severe).
  • Total prevalent cases of AD by diagnosis status.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of AD by symptom status (agitation, depression, hallucinations).
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of MCI due to AD by drug-treatment status
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of AD by drug-treatment status.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of mild AD by drug-treatment status.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of moderate AD by drug-treatment status.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases of severe AD by drug-treatment status.

… and many more (details available on request).

Note: Coverage may vary by country and region.

Table of contents

  • Alzheimer's Disease - Epidemiology - Mature Markets
    • Introduction
      • Total Prevalence of Alzheimer's Disease per 1,000 People Aged 30+ in 2020 and 2040
      • Patient Flow Diagram for Alzheimer's Disease Across All Countries Under Study in 2020
      • Relative Sizes of the Contributing Factors to the Trend in Total Prevalent Cases of Alzheimer's Disease over the Next 20 Years
      • Analysis of Total Prevalent Cases of Alzheimer's Disease by Diagnosed and Drug-Treated Status
      • Analysis of Total Prevalent Cases of Alzheimer's Disease in 2020 by Severity
      • Number of Additional Total Prevalent Cases of Alzheimer's Disease Incurred over 2020-2040 in the Countries Under Study
    • Epidemiology Data
    • Methods
      • 2020 Model Update
      • Total Asymptomatic Alzheimer's Disease Incident Cases
      • Multistate Model of the Progression of Alzheimer's Disease
      • Total Mild Cognitive Impairment due to Alzheimer's Disease Incident Cases
      • Total Alzheimer's Disease Incident Cases
      • Total Asymptomatic Alzheimer's Disease Prevalent Cases
      • Total Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease Prevalent Cases
      • Total Alzheimer's Disease Prevalent Cases
      • Total Alzheimer's Disease by APOE e4 Status Prevalent Cases
      • Diagnosed MCI due to AD and Alzheimer's Disease Prevalent Cases
      • Diagnosed Alzheimer's Disease by Severity Prevalent Cases
      • Diagnosed Alzheimer's Disease by Symptom Status Prevalent Cases
      • Diagnosed Drug-Treated Alzheimer's Disease by Severity Prevalent Cases
      • Lifetime DALYs Gained
    • Reference Materials
      • Literature Review
        • Studies Included in the Analysis of Alzheimer's Disease
        • Studies Excluded from the Analysis of Alzheimer's Disease
      • Risk/Protective Factors
        • Risk/Protective Factors for Alzheimer's Disease
      • Bibliography
        • Glossary

    Author(s): Oliver Blandy; Nishant Kumar, MPH

    Oliver Blandy, BSc PGCE MSc, joined Decision Resources Group (DRG) as an Associate Epidemiologist in 2017. He focuses on the epidemiology of cancer.

    Oliver holds an MSc from the University of Bristol where he specialized in Nutrition, Physical Activity and Public Health. He also holds a BSc in Chemistry and has a Post Graduate Certificate in Education (PGCE), both from the University of Bristol and taught general science and Advanced Chemistry in high school for two years.

    Before joining the team at DRG, Oliver worked as a Research Assistant for Imperial College London where he was the lead for several studies within an NIRH funded research group that investigated healthcare associated infections and antimicrobial resistance.

    Nishant is a senior epidemiologist and head of oncology within the epidemiology team at Decision Resources Group. He also covers some CNS diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. His key interests are developing interactive patient flows, and modelling disease progression to forecast commercially relevant drug-treatable incident and prevalent populations. Nishant also spends a lot of time collaborating with clients to help answer more specific questions through custom work and consulting projects.

    His qualifications include an MSc in Public Health with specialization in epidemiology and statistics from King’s College London, and a BSc in Medical Studies from the University of Birmingham.


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