The wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) therapy market has long been dominated by three VEGF inhibitors—Roche / Genentech / Chugai’s Avastin, Roche / Genentech / Novartis’s Lucentis, and Regeneron / Bayer HealthCare / Santen’s Eylea—but competition has intensified since the U.S. approval of Novartis’s Beovu in late 2019. We expect this launch to be followed by six other late-phase therapies for wet AMD, and biosimilars are on the horizon; thus, Eylea's and Lucentis’s positions will be increasingly threatened as the market becomes more fragmented. In contrast to the treatment of wet AMD, management of patients with dry AMD is limited to minimally effective vitamin formulations because no prescription therapies are approved for this large and underserved subpopulation. However, several novel therapies are advancing in the pipeline for dry AMD, increasing the possibility that an effective therapy may soon emerge.

Questions Answered:

  • Do KOLs perceive any differences between Avastin, Eylea, Lucentis, and Beovu? How is the wet AMD treatment algorithm expected to change, if at all, as new products launch?
  • Biosimilar versions of Eylea and Lucentis are forecast to launch within the next five years. What is the likely impact of these therapies on current and emerging VEGF inhibitors?
  • A substantial unmet need in wet AMD exists for therapies with longer dosing intervals than those offered by current therapies. To what extent are late-phase therapies such as Roche’s ranibizumab port delivery system and faricimab expected to capitalize on this unmet need?
  • With the anticipated approval of Apellis’s pegcetacoplan and IVERIC Bio’s Zimura as the first drugs for GA, how likely are these complement inhibitors to be incorporated into clinical practice?

Product Description:

Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Primary research: 31 country-specific interviews with thought-leading retinal specialists. Supported by survey data collected for this and other DRG research.

Epidemiology: Total prevalence of late AMD by country, segmented by GA and wet AMD subpopulations, including diagnosed and drug-treated rates.

Forecast: Ten-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key GA and wet AMD therapies through 2029, segmented by brands / biosimilars and epidemiological subpopulations.

Emerging therapies: Phase III / PR: 12 drugs; Phase II: 12 drugs; coverage of select Phase I products.

Table of contents

  • Dry And Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration - Landscape & Forecast - Disease Landscape & Forecast
    • Key Updates
      • Q2 2021
        • April 2021
      • Q1 2021
        • March 2021
        • February 2021
        • January 2021
      • Q4 2020
        • December 2020
      • Q3 2020
        • September 2020
      • Q2 2020
        • May 2020
    • Key Findings
      • Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration - Key Findings - December 2020
        • May 2020
    • Market Outlook
      • Key Findings
        • Market Share of Drug Classes for AMD: 2019
        • Market Share of Drug Classes for AMD: 2029
        • Dry and Wet AMD SWOT Analysis
      • COVID-19: Areas of Potential Forecast Impact
        • Market Drivers and Constraints
          • What Factors Are Driving the Market for AMD?
          • What Factors Are Constraining the Market for AMD?
          • Major-Market Sales and Treated Patients in AMD: 2019-2029
          • Major-Market Brand and Biosimilar Sales and Market Share for VEGF Inhibitors in Wet AMD: 2019-2029
          • Market Share and Share of Treated Patients for AMD by Region: 2019-2029
        • Drug Class-Specific Trends
          • Patient Share of VEGF Inhibitors in Wet AMD in the United States: 2019-2029
          • Patient Share of VEGF Inhibitors in Wet AMD in Europe: 2019-2029
          • Patient Share of VEGF Inhibitors in Wet AMD in Japan: 2019-2029
          • Major-Market Sales of VEGF Inhibitors in Wet AMD: 2019-2029
          • Patient Share of Faricimab in Wet AMD in the Major Markets: 2019-2029
          • Major-Market Sales of Faricimab in Wet AMD: 2019-2029
          • Sales of Complement System Inhibitors in GA in the United States: 2019-2029
          • Patient Share of Complement System Inhibitors in GA in the United States: 2019-2029
          • Sales of Complement System Inhibitors in GA in Europe: 2019-2029
          • Patient Share of Complement System Inhibitors in GA in Europe: 2019-2029
      • Forecast
        • Market Forecast Downloads
        • Market Forecast Assumptions – Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (2019-2029) – November 2020
        • Market Forecast Dashboard - Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (2019-2029) - November 2020
      • Etiology and Pathophysiology
        • Disease Overview
          • Pathophysiology
            • Disease Classifications
            • Anatomy of the Eye
            • Pathology
          • Etiology
            • Mechanisms Associated with AMD Pathogenesis
          • Risk Factors
            • Genetic Risk Factors
            • Genetic Markers Associated with AMD
            • Other Risk Factors
            • Demographic and Environmental Risk Factors Associated with AMD
          • Key Pathways and Drug Targets
            • Potential Drug Targets for AMD
        • Epidemiology
          • Key Findings
            • Epidemiology Populations
              • Disease Definition
              • Methods
              • Sources Used for Total Prevalent Cases of Late AMD
              • Total Prevalent Cases of Late AMD: 2019-2029 (thousands)
              • Disease Definition
              • Methods
              • Sources Used for Total Prevalent Cases of GA and Wet AMD
              • Total Prevalent Cases of GA and Wet AMD: 2019-2029
              • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Wet AMD: 2019-2029
              • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of GA: 2019-2029
              • Drug-Treated Wet AMD Cases: 2019-2029
              • Drug-Treated GA Cases: 2019-2029
          • Current Treatment
            • Key Findings
              • Treatment Goals
                • Key Endpoints Used in Clinical Trials for AMD
                • Imaging Techniques Used in Evaluating AMD
              • Key Current Therapies
                • Overview
                • Mechanism of Action of Key Current Drug Classes Used for Wet AMD
                • Current Treatments Used for Wet AMD
                • Dosing Regimens as Indicated in the Labels of Key VEGF Inhibitors Approved for the Treatment of Wet AMD by Region
                • Commonly Used Treatment Regimens for VEGF Inhibitors in Wet AMD in Clinical Practice
                • Market Events Impacting the Use of Key Current Therapies in AMD
                • Advantages and Disadvantages of Lucentis
                • Expert Insight on Lucentis
                • Advantages and Disadvantages of Eylea
                • Expert Insight on Eylea
                • Advantages and Disadvantages of Avastin
                • Expert Insight on Avastin
                • Advantages and Disadvantages of Macugen
                • Advantages and Disadvantages of Beovu
                • Key Results from Select Clinical Trials Investigating Beovu for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Ongoing Clinical Development of Beovu
                • Key Ongoing Clinical Trials of Beovu in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight on Beovu
                • Advantages and Disadvantages of Visudyne / Photodynamic Therapy
              • Medical Practice
                • Overview
                • Country-Specific AMD Treatment Guidelines
                • Factors Influencing Drug Selection in Wet AMD
                • Treatment Decision Tree for AMD: United States
                • Treatment Decision Tree for AMD: Europe
                • Treatment Decision Tree for AMD: Japan
            • Unmet Need Overview
              • Current and Future Attainment of Unmet Needs in AMD
              • Top Unmet Needs in AMD: Current and Future Attainment
              • Expert Insight: Unmet Need in AMD
            • Emerging Therapies
              • Key Findings
                • Pipeline Trends in AMD
              • Key Emerging Therapies
                • Key Therapies in Development for AMD
                • Estimated Launch Dates of Key Emerging Therapies for the Treatment of AMD
                • Abicipar Pegol Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Abicipar Pegol
                • Key Development Milestones for Abicipar Pegol in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: Abicipar Pegol
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Abicipar Pegol in Wet AMD
                • Ranibizumab PDS Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for the Ranibizumab PDS
                • Key Development Milestones for the Ranibizumab PDS in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: Ranibizumab PDS
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Ranibizumab PDS in Wet AMD
                • Likely Uses of Ranibizumab PDS for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Conbercept Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Conbercept
                • Key Development Milestones for Conbercept in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Conbercept in Wet AMD
                • Likely Uses of Conbercept for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: Conbercept
                • ONS-5010 Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for ONS-5010
                • Key Development Milestones for ONS-5010 in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: ONS-5010
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of ONS-5010 in Wet AMD
                • Likely Uses of ONS-5010 for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • High-Dose Aflibercept Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for High-Dose Aflibercept
                • Key Development Milestones for High-Dose Aflibercept in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of High-Dose Aflibercept in Wet AMD
                • Likely Uses of High-Dose Aflibercept for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: High-Dose Aflibercept
                • KSI-301 Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for KSI-301
                • Key Development Milestones for KSI-301 in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: KSI-301
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of KSI-301 in Wet AMD
                • Likely Uses of KSI-301 for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • OPT-302 Profile
                • Key Ongoing Clinical Trials of OPT-302 in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for OPT-302
                • Expert Insight: OPT-302
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of OPT-302 in Wet AMD
                • Faricimab Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Faricimab
                • Key Development Milestones for Faricimab in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: Faricimab
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Faricimab in Wet AMD
                • Likely Uses of Faricimab for the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Pegcetacoplan Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Pegcetacoplan
                • Key Development Milestones for Pegcetacoplan in the Treatment of GA
                • Expert Insight: Pegcetacoplan
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Pegcetacoplan in GA
                • Likely Uses of Pegcetacoplan for the Treatment of GA
                • Zimura Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Zimura
                • Key Development Milestones for Zimura in the Treatment of GA
                • Expert Insight: Zimura
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Zimura in GA
                • Likely Uses of Zimura for the Treatment of GA
                • ALK-001 Profile
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for ALK-001
                • Key Development Milestones for ALK-001 in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of ALK-001 in Wet AMD
                • Expert Insight: ALK-001
                • RGX-314 Profile
                • Key Ongoing Clinical Trials of RGX-314 in the Treatment of Wet AMD
                • Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for RGX-314
                • Expert Insight: RGX-314
                • Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of RGX-314 in Wet AMD
                • Select Cell-Based Therapy Profiles
                • Expert Insight: Cell-Based Therapies
              • Early-Phase Pipeline Analysis
                • Select Compounds in Early-Phase Development for AMD
            • Access and Reimbursement Overview
              • Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
                • Key Market Access Considerations in Wet AMD: United States
                • General Reimbursement Environment: United States
                • Key Market Access Considerations in Wet AMD: EU5
                • General Reimbursement Environment: EU5
                • Key Market Access Considerations in Wet AMD: Japan
                • General Reimbursement Environment: Japan
              • Looking for More?
            • Appendix
              • Key Abbreviations Related to Dry and Wet AMD
              • Brands, Marketers, and Generic Availability of Key Therapies for AMD by Market
              • Dry and Wet AMD Bibliography

          Author(s): Andrea Witt, Ph.D.; Emma McFadden, Ph.D.

          Andrea S. Witt, Ph.D., is Therapy Leader of the Central Nervous System and Ophthalmology Disorders Portfolio at Decision Resources Group where she oversees a team of 14 Business Insights Analysts and Senior Directors responsible for market research encompassing Neurology, Psychiatry, Pain, and Ophthalmology.

           Dr. Witt has been with Decision Resources Group for over 12 years, following CNS markets and trends. Her interests beyond specific CNS indications included the market potential for neuroprotectants and the impact of biomarkers on CNS markets. Dr. Witt’s research, analysis, and commentaries have appeared in Barron’s, Pharmaceutical Executive, PharmaVoice, Nature Medicine, and CNBC. Dr. Witt’s previous experience includes 10 years of scientific research conducted on neurodegenerative disorders at Harvard Medical School/Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Duke University, and the University of Texas-Southwestern Medical Center, where she earned her Ph.D. degree.

          Emma McFadden, Ph.D., is a director on the CNS/Ophthalmology Disorders team at DRG, part of Clarivate. Her focus is on ophthalmic indications, such as age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and diabetic macular edema, although she has authored reports in a number of other indications, including multiple sclerosis and epilepsy. Dr. McFadden earned a B.A. in neuroscience and a Ph.D. in biochemistry from Trinity College in Dublin.

           


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