The Alzheimer’s disease (AD) market today comprises a handful of symptomatic options that offer only modest efficacy of limited duration, leaving ample room for novel, more-effective alternatives—in particular, disease-modifying therapies capable of slowing disease progression. As the baby boomer generation ages, we forecast a rapidly growing pool of patients suffering from this devastating condition, a trend that will simultaneously increase the treatment-eligible patient pool and impose a new strain on healthcare resources. Considering the huge unmet need, many drug developers continue to invest heavily in this space, despite a perennially high rate of attrition. Based on the latest developments and expert insights, we forecast the launch of three potential disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) targeting the amyloid cascade—Biogen/Neurimmune’s aducanumab, Roche/Genentech/AC Immune’s crenezumab, and Roche/MorphoSys’s gantenerumab—which will dramatically expand the market for AD therapies market over the next ten years. Additionally, we forecast the launch of two behavioral therapies, Avanir/Otsuka’s AVP-786 and Lundbeck/Otsuka’s Rexulti, for the treatment of agitation associated with AD, a burdensome symptom affecting both patients and caregivers. However, owing to as-yet uncertain clinical benefits from any of the emerging candidates and to lingering questions about the clinical efficacy, safety, and fundamental launch prospects of putative DMTs, we expect investigational products will only partially fulfill the need for therapeutic advances should they launch—an outcome that is far from guaranteed.
- How large is the treatable AD population, and how will diagnosis/drug-treatment rates change over time? What will the impact of DMTs be on diagnosis/drug treatment and in which populations?
- What pipeline products are the most promising, and what sales/uptake could they secure in AD? What is the forecast for emerging DMTs such as Biogen’s aducanumab or agents to treat agitation in AD such as Avanir/Otsuka’s AVP-786?
- What are the drivers and constraints in the AD therapy market, and how might they change over the forecast period as premium-priced agents enter the market?
Disease Landscape & Forecast: Comprehensive market intelligence providing world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.