The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapy market is dynamic and growing as many effective antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), such as Gilead’s Biktarvy, continue to launch, prompting safety and tolerability to become the key differentiating attributes between ART regimens. The rise of single-pill nuc-sparing and nuc-reduced regimens (e.g., ViiV’s Juluca and dolutegravir/lamivudine) with a reduced long-term risk of comorbidities will expand treatment options and allow preferential prescribing among HIV patients who closely adhere to therpay. Commercial opportunity in the HIV market will be driven by a large and aging prevalent viremic patient population whose needs will shift to their comorbidities as their HIV infections become well managed.


  • What is the current market landscape for the treatment of HIV? How will emerging therapies like Biktarvy compete with entrenched brands like ViiV’s Triumeq?
  • How will changing prevalence, diagnosis, and drug-treatment rates for HIV affect overall market growth? What are the healthcare policies that will influence drug-treatment rates, and how much of an impact will these strategies have?
  • What emerging therapies and/or interventions have the potential to offer a “functional cure” for HIV infection?
  • What are the most-promising agents in the late-stage pipeline, and how will they be differentiated from current therapies?


Disease Landscape & Forecast: Comprehensive market intelligence providing world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.


August 2018


United States, EU5, Japan


  • 19 country-specific interviews with infectious disease experts.
  • Supported by survey data collected for this report and other DRG research.


Total seroprevalent cases of HIV, diagnosed incident and drug-treated cases by country as well as the HIVPrEP-indicated population.


Ten-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key HIV therapies through 2027, segmented by brands/generics.


Phase III/PR: 7 drugs; Phase II: 5 drugs. Coverage of select preclinical and Phase I products.

Table of contents

  • Disease Landscape & Forecast
    • Key Updates
      • October 2018
      • August 2018
      • June 2018
      • March 2018
    • Market Outlook
      • Key Findings
        • Key Findings
        • Market Overview
      • Market Drivers and Constraints
        • What Factors Are Constraining the Market for Human Immunodeficiency Virus?
      • Drug-Class-Specific Trends
        • Single-Tablet Regimens
        • Long-Acting Regimens
        • Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
        • Integrase Inhibitors
        • Protease Inhibitors
        • Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
        • Other Antiviral Therapies
    • Forecast
      • Market Forecast Assumptions
      • Market Forecast Dashboard
    • Etiology and Pathophysiology
      • Disease Overview
      • Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease Process
      • Viral Structure
      • Viral Life Cycle
      • Classification of Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Co-Receptor Tropism
      • Key Pathways and Drug Targets
    • Epidemiology Overview
      • Introduction
        • Key Findings
      • Epidemiology Populations
        • Diagnosed Incident Cases
        • Total Prevalent Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection
        • PrEP-Eligible Population
        • Diagnosed and Drug-Treated Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection
    • Current Treatment Overview
      • Key Findings
      • Treatment Goals
      • Key Current Therapies
        • Overview
        • Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
        • Non-Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
        • Protease Inhibitors
        • Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitors
        • Single-Tablet Regimens
        • Pharmacokinetic Enhancers
        • Monoclonal Antibodies
        • Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
      • Medical Practice
        • Treatment Guidelines
        • Region-Specific Treatment Practices
    • Unmet Need Overview
      • Current and Future Attainment of Unmet Needs in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
    • Emerging Therapies Overview
      • Key Findings
        • Key Findings
      • Key Emerging Therapies
        • Notable Developments Among Key Emerging Therapies for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
        • Nuc-Sparing Regimens
        • Attachment Inhibitors
        • Monoclonal Antibodies
      • Early-Phase Pipeline Analysis
        • Notable Developments in the Early-Phase Pipeline for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
    • Access and Reimbursement Overview
      • Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
        • United States
        • EU5
        • Japan
      • Looking for More?
    • Methodology
      • Market Forecast Assumptions File
      • Bottom-Up Forecasting Overview
        • Patient Populations
        • Drug-Specific Assumptions
      • Bottom-Up Forecast Assumptions
        • General Sources of Data
        • General Statements About Pricing
        • Dosing, Days of Therapy, and Compliance
        • Generic Erosion
        • Out-Year Forecasting
        • Emerging Therapy Prices
      • Primary Market Research
        • Experts Interviewed
    • Appendix
      • Human Immunodeficiency Virus Bibliography
      • Supplemental Epidemiology Bibliography

Author(s): Steven F. Trueman, PhD; Sunali D. Goonesekera, SM

Steve is a member of Decision Resources Group’s Infectious, Niche, and Rare Diseases (INRD) team. Currently, he provides analyses and content production on infections caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the hepatitis C virus (HCV). Steve conducted his postdoctoral research on models of neurodegenerative disease in the Department of Biochemistry at Brandeis University. He earned a doctorate in biochemistry from the University of Massachusetts Medical School, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, where he studied protein translocation into the endoplasmic reticulum.

Sunali Goonesekera is an Associate Epidemiologist at Decision Resources Group. Sunali holds a Master’s degree in Epidemiology from the Harvard School of Public Health and a in Biology (Honors) from Dartmouth College. Prior to joining Decision Resources Group, Sunali conducted epidemiological research and lead authored two manuscripts on racial/ethnic disparities in metabolic diseases at the New England Research Institutes. She has contributed to multiple publications in peer-reviewed journals in epidemiology and in the biological sciences.