DRG Epidemiology’s coverage of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) comprises epidemiological estimates of key patient populations in 45 countries worldwide. We report the prevalence of COPD for each country, as well as annualized case counts projected to the national population.

Most patient populations are forecast over a period of 20 years for the major mature pharmaceutical markets of the United States, Europe, and Japan and 10 years for the other countries covered in this report.

DRG Epidemiology’s COPD forecast will answer the following questions:

  • How will changes in the levels of exposure to known risk or protective factors affect the number of people living with COPD?
  • In developing countries, what impact will economic growth and development have on the number of people living with a diagnosis of COPD?
  • Of all people with COPD, how many in each country have been formally diagnosed?
  • Of all people diagnosed with COPD, how many in each of the major mature pharmaceutical markets are drug-treated?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of COPD over the forecast period?

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is provided for full transparency into research and methods.

In addition to the total number of cases for each forecast year, DRG Epidemiology provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following COPD subpopulations:

  • ACOS.
  • Eosinophilic COPD.
  • Diagnosed prevalent cases by severity.
  • Drug-treated cases (mild-moderate).
  • Drug-treated cases (severe-very severe).
  • Drug-treatment status.
  • Exacerbations in mild-moderate disease status.
  • Exacerbations in severe-very severe disease status.
  • Diagnosis status.
  • … and more (details available on request).

Note: Coverage may vary by country.

Table of contents

  • Mature Markets
    • Introduction
      • Key Findings
      • Total Prevalence: GOLD-Defined Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease per 100 Among People Aged 40+ in 2018 and 2038
      • Relative Sizes of the Factors Contributing to the Trend in Prevalent Cases: GOLD-Defined Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease over the Next Twenty Years
      • Analysis of GOLD-Defined or Spirometric-Negative Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in the Countries Under Study in 2018 by Severity
      • Analysis of GOLD-Defined or Spirometric-Negative Prevalent Cases of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in 2018 by Diagnosed and Drug-Treated Status
      • Number of Prevalent Cases: GOLD-Defined Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in 2038 Prevented in the Countries Under Study due to Trends in Risk
    • Methods
      • Total incident cases: GOLD-defined
      • Total prevalent cases: GOLD-defined
      • Total prevalent cases: GOLD-defined or spirometric-negative
      • Spirometric-negative prevalent cases
      • Diagnosed GOLD-defined or spirometric-negative prevalent cases
      • Diagnosed GOLD-defined or spirometric-negative prevalent cases by severity
      • Asthma-COPD Overlap Syndrome
      • Acute Exacerbations of COPD
      • Eosinophilic COPD
      • Drug-Treated Cases of COPD
      • Lifetime DALYs Gained
    • Epidemiology Data
    • Reference Materials
      • Literature Review
      • Risk/Protective Factors
      • Bibliography

Author(s): Stephanie Niquita; Abey John, MPH

Stephanie Niquita works as an associate epidemiologist at Decision Resources Group. Stephanie holds a masters in public health specializing in epidemiology from TISS, Mumbai and a medical degree from Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, People’s Republic of China. She has been trained as a community physician and has also supervised and coordinated various governmental and non-governmental public health projects.

Abey John is a medical graduate with a Master’s in Public Health and has been associated with DRG since September 2015. He works with a global team of epidemiologists in performing systematic reviews of assigned diseases and prepare forecast models for clients. He also is involved in producing analyses for pharmaceutical drug developers on the descriptive epidemiology of major drug indications in mature and developing markets and have an overall experience of three years working in different healthcare sectors across the country. Prior to joining DRG, Abey had been working with Jhpiego (an affiliate of Johns Hopkins Medical University) in implementing Family Planning Health Programs in India with collaborating with the Government of India. He also has worked with a grassroots level NGO as a health team manager which worked for the benefit of the rural population living in the foothills of the Himalayas.


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