DRG Epidemiology's coverage of pancreatic cancer comprises epidemiological estimates of key patient populations across 45 countries worldwide. We report both the incidence and prevalence of pancreatic cancer for each country, as well as annualized case counts projected to the national population.

Most patient populations are forecast over a period of 20 years for the major mature pharmaceutical markets and 10 years for the other countries covered in this report. In addition to forecasting incident and prevalent patient populations, the number of drug-treatment opportunities at specific lines of therapy are also forecast across the world.

DRG Epidemiology's pancreatic cancer forecast will answer the following questions:

All forecast data are available on the DRG Insights Platform in tabular format, with options to download to MS Excel. All populations are accompanied by a comprehensive description of the methods and data sources used, with hyperlinks to external sources. A summary evidence table generated as part of our systematic review of the epidemiological literature is also provided for full transparency into research and methods. In addition, we provide a graphical depiction of the patient flow between or within different disease states for the countries considered in this report. These patient flow diagrams are provided at the regional level, but may be requested for any specific country or forecast year.

In addition to the total number of cases for each forecast year, DRG Epidemiology also provides at least ten years of forecast data for the following pancreatic cancer subpopulations:

Note: coverage may vary by country.

  • How will changes in the levels of exposure to known risk or protective factors affect the number of people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer per year?
  • In developing countries, what impact will economic growth and development have on the number of people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer per year?
  • How will improvements in survival change the number of first-line drug-treatment opportunities for pancreatic cancer?
  • How will decreasing recurrence risk change the number of first-line drug-treatment opportunities for pancreatic cancer?
  • Of all people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, how many in each country across the major mature pharmaceutical markets are drug-treated?
  • How will demographic trends, such as population aging and improving life expectancy, affect the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer over the forecast period?
    • Diagnosed prevalent cases by drug-treatment eligibility
    • Drug-treatable prevalent cases by resection status
    • First-line metastatic drug-treatable population by drug-treatment s status
    • Locally advanced treatment s status
    • Resectable (stage I-II) drug-treatment status
    • Second-line metastatic drug-treatment status
    • Stage at diagnosis
    • Stage I resection status
    • Stage II resection status

Table of contents

  • Mature Markets
    • Introduction
      • Key Findings
      • Overview
        • Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer per 100,000 per Year Among People of All Ages in 2017 and 2037
        • Relative Sizes of the Factors Contributing to the Trend in Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer over the Next Twenty Years
        • Analysis of the Incident Cases of Pancreatic Cancer in 2017 by Stage at Diagnosis
    • Epidemiology Data
    • Methods
      • Newly Diagnosed Incidence
      • Stage Distribution
      • Recurrent Incidence
      • Diagnosed Prevalence
      • Resection Status
      • Drug-Treatable Populations
      • Drug-Treated Populations
      • Lifetime DALYs Gained
    • Reference Materials
      • Literature Review
      • Risk/Protective Factors
      • Bibliography

Author(s): Nicole Zhang, MPH

Nicole Zhang is an Epidemiologist at Decision Resources Group. She focuses on the epidemiology of oncology and cardiovascular disorders. She holds an from Tufts Medical School where she specialized in epidemiology and biostatistics. She also holds a in Chemistry and Statistics from Mount Holyoke College. Prior to joining Decision Resources, she worked as a research analyst at Massachusetts General Hospital where she independently managed data from food information survey conducted in Chelsea, MA. She has also worked at Massachusetts Department of Public Health where she conducted secondary research in the fields of gestational diabetes.


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