Type 1 Diabetes | Landscape & Forecast | Disease Landscape & Forecast

Publish date: June 2019

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Decision Resources Group anticipates the next ten years to be an exciting time in the type 1 diabetes (T1D) space as the number of treatment options continues to grow. Existing agents fail to provide sustained and intrinsic control of T1D, and none address the autoimmune component of T1D’s etiology. While late-stage pipeline therapies in development represent drug classes already on the market (e.g., SGLT-2 inhibitors), several early-stage pipeline therapies present genuine novel mechanisms of action. There is a shifting emphasis on the types of therapies in development for T1D, with significant interest in pancreatic beta-cell replacement therapies and CD3 antigen inhibitors. The launch of biosimilar insulins is having a profound effect on the T1D market across the G7, and we are witnessing an intricate interplay of physician and payer attitudes to this new treatment option.

Questions Answered

  • What clinical role will oral therapies, regenerative approaches, and immunological approaches play in the evolving T1D treatment landscape?
  • What will be the market impact of Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly’s Abasaglar and other biosimilars? How resistant are physicians to payer pressure regarding switching patients to biosimilars?
  • How will endocrinologists differentiate between the emerging therapies, and which will enjoy the greatest clinical and commercial success in an increasingly stringent regulatory environment?
  • What can entrenched T1D players do to further protect their franchises from biosimilar and novel agent competition?


Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Primary research: 20 country-specific interviews with thought-leaders and endocrinologists. Patient shares surveyed in all regions.

Epidemiology: Diagnosed prevalence; 3 drug-treated subpopulations modeled— adult, adolescent, and child.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 30+ drugs; Phase III: 7 drugs; preregistration: 2 drugs. Coverage of select preclinical and Phase I products.

Market forecast features: Using a proprietary model, we forecast population sizes and T1D drug sales for rolled-up adult, adolescent, and child patient segments through 2026.

Key companies: Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Eli Lilly, Merck, Boehringer Ingelheim, Samsung Bioepis, Mylan, Biocon, Astellas, Janssen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca, Lexicon, Sanofi

Key drugs: Lantus, Levemir, Toujeo, Tresiba, Abasaglar, NovoLog, Humalog, Fiasp, Admelog, Ryzodeg, Jardiance, Farxiga, Invokana, Suglat, sotagliflozin.

Table of contents

  • Disease Landscape & Forecast
    • Key Updates
      • June 2019
      • March 2019
    • Executive Summary
      • Key Findings
    • Market Outlook
      • Key Findings
        • Market Overview
      • Market Drivers and Constraints
        • What Factors Are Driving the Market for Type 1 Diabetes?
        • What Factors Are Constraining the Market for Type 1 Diabetes?
      • Drug Class-Specific Trends
        • Long-Acting Insulins
        • Rapid-Acting Insulins
        • SGLT Inhibitors
    • Forecast
    • Etiology and Pathophysiology
      • Key Findings
        • Disease Overview
      • Etiology
        • Etiology
      • Pathophysiology
        • Pathophysiology
      • Natural History
        • Natural History
      • Key Pathways and Drug Targets
    • Epidemiology Overview
      • Key Findings
      • Epidemiology Populations
        • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Type 1 Diabetes
        • Drug-Treated Cases of Type 1 Diabetes
    • Current Treatment Overview
      • Key Findings
        • Key Findings
      • Treatment Goals
        • Physician Insights on Clinical End Points
      • Key Current Therapies
        • Overview
        • Insulins
      • Medical Practice
        • Overview
        • Treatment Guidelines
        • Drug Selection
        • Region-Specific Treatment Practices
    • Unmet Need Overview
      • Key Findings
      • Attainment of Unmet Needs
        • Current Attainment of Unmet Needs in Type 1 Diabetes
        • Future Attainment of Unmet Needs in Type 1 Diabetes
    • Emerging Therapies Overview
      • Key Findings
      • Key Emerging Therapies
        • Notable Developments Among Key Emerging Therapies for Type 1 Diabetes
        • Long-Acting Insulins
        • Rapid-Acting Insulins
        • SGLT inhibitors
      • Early-Phase Pipeline Analysis
        • Notable Developments in the Early-Phase Pipeline for Type 1 Diabetes
    • Access & Reimbursement Overview
      • Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
        • United States
        • EU5
        • Japan
    • Methodology
      • Bottom-Up Forecasting Overview
        • Patient Populations
        • Drug-Specific Assumptions
      • Bottom-Up Forecast Assumptions
        • General Sources of Data
        • General Statements About Pricing
        • Dosing, Days of Therapy, and Compliance
        • Generic Erosion
        • Biosimilar Erosion
        • Out-Year Forecasting
        • Emerging Therapy Prices
      • Primary Market Research
        • Experts Interviewed
    • Appendix
      • Bibliography

Author(s): Kerri Brown, M Pharm

Kerri Brown, is an analyst with Decision Resources Group, focused on finding stories in data and developing products to inform strategic decisions in the hemophilia and diabetes spaces. Kerri holds a master of pharmacy degree from King’s College London with 1 st class honors. Prior to joining DRG, she was a national clinical educator at a UK diabetes start-up, and has extensive experience of diabetes medical devices. Kerri has worked at AstraZeneca, and as a pharmacist in a national psychiatric clinical trial center. In addition to her work at DRG, Kerri is a practicing pharmacist with extensive clinical experience of UK physician prescribing in diabetes.