Pancreatic cancer is characterized by a very poor prognosis; five-year relative survival is 5%. The disease’s rapid progression, most patients’ poor performance status, and the large number of elderly patients result in lower treatment rates than those of other cancer indications. Therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer are limited. Thus, opportunity in this market remains largely untapped; an agent able to demonstrate statistically significant efficacy compared with that of the standard of care, gemcitabine (Eli Lilly’s Gemzar, generics), will likely gain regulatory approval and enjoy strong uptake. Furthermore, a therapy that demonstrates efficacy similar to that of the FOLFIRINOX regimen but is more tolerable will likely become the new standard of care for the majority of patients and reap significant commercial reward.
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 22 country-specific interviews with expert oncologists; surveys fielded to 70 physicians in the United States and Europe.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed incidence of exocrine pancreatic cancer by TNM stage I, IIa, IIb, III, and IV.
Drug-treatable population segments in market forecast: Resectable, early-stage disease (TNM stages I-IIb); unresectable, locally advanced disease (TNM stage III), first line; unresectable, metastatic/recurrent (TNM stage I-IIb) disease, first line; unresectable, metastatic, second line.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 33 drugs; Phase III: 10 drugs.
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast annualized population sizes and drug sales for all patient segments through 2022.
Alternative market scenarios: Failure of a second targeted agent to launch for the treatment of unresectable pancreatic cancer.