The wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) market has long been dominated by three VEGF inhibitors—Roche / Genentech / Chugai’s Avastin, Roche / Genentech / Novartis’s Lucentis, and Regeneron / Bayer HealthCare / Santen’s Eylea—but competition has intensified with the U.S. approval of Novartis’s Beovu in late 2019. We expect this launch to be followed by the approval of Allergan’s abicipar pegol in 2020 and with other late-phase therapies and biosimilars on the horizon, Eylea and Lucentis’s positions will be increasingly threatened as the market becomes more fragmented. In contrast to wet AMD, management of patients with dry AMD is limited to minimally effective vitamin formulations because no prescription therapies are approved for this large and underserved subpopulation. However, several novel therapies are advancing in the pipeline for dry AMD, increasing the possibility that an effective therapy may soon emerge.

Questions Answered:

  • Do KOLs perceive any differences between Avastin, Eylea, Lucentis, and Beovu? How is the wet AMD treatment algorithm  expected to change, if at all, as new products launch?
  • Biosimilar versions of Eylea and Lucentis are forecast to launch within the next five years. What is the likely impact of these therapies on current and emerging VEGF inhibitors?
  • A substantial unmet need in wet AMD exists for therapies with longer dosing intervals than offered by current therapies. To what extent are late-phase emerging therapies such as Roche’s ranibizumab port delivery system and faricimab, expected to capitalize on this unmet need?
  • With the anticipated approval of Apellis’s pegcetacoplan as the first drug for GA, how likely is it to be incorporated into clinical practice by physicians?

Product Description:

Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Primary research: ~20 country-specific interviews with thought-leading retinal specialists. Supported by survey data collected for this and other DRG research.

Epidemiology: Total prevalence of late AMD by country, segmented by GA and wet AMD subpopulations, including diagnosed and drug-treated rates.

Forecast: Ten-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key GA and wet AMD therapies through 2029, segmented by brands / biosimilars and epidemiological subpopulations.

Emerging therapies: Phase III / PR: 7 drugs; Phase II: 17 drugs; coverage of select Phase I products.

Table of contents

  • Disease Landscape & Forecast
    • COVID-19
    • Key Findings
      • Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration - Key Findings - April 2020
    • Key Updates
      • May 2020
      • November 2019
      • October 2019
      • September 2019
      • June 2019
      • February 2019
    • Market Outlook
      • Key Findings
      • COVID-19: Areas of Potential Forecast Impact
      • Market Drivers and Constraints
        • What Factors Are Driving the Market for AMD?
        • What Factors Are Constraining the Market for AMD?
      • Drug Class-Specific Trends
        • VEGF Inhibitors
        • VEGF / Ang-2 Inhibitors
        • Complement System Inhibitors
    • Forecast
      • Market Forecast Downloads
      • Market Forecast Assumptions - Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (2018-2028) - November 2019
      • Market Forecast Dashboard - Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (2018-2028) - November 2019
    • Etiology and Pathophysiology
      • Disease Overview
      • Pathophysiology
        • Disease Classifications
        • Anatomy of the Eye
        • Pathology
      • Etiology
      • Risk Factors
        • Genetic Risk Factors
        • Other Risk Factors
      • Key Pathways and Drug Targets
    • Epidemiology
      • Key Findings
      • Epidemiology Populations
        • Total Prevalent Cases: Late AMD
        • Total Prevalent Cases: GA and Wet AMD
        • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Late AMD
        • Drug-Treated Prevalent Cases of Late AMD
    • Current Treatment
      • Key Findings
      • Treatment Goals
      • Key Current Therapies
        • Overview
        • VEGF Inhibitors
        • Photosensitizing Agents
      • Medical Practice
        • Overview
        • Region-Specific Treatment Practices
    • Unmet Need Overview
      • Current and Future Attainment of Unmet Needs in AMD
    • Emerging Therapies
      • Key Findings
      • Key Emerging Therapies
        • VEGF Inhibitors
        • VEGF / Ang-2 Inhibitors
        • Complement System Inhibitors
        • Retinoids
        • Cell-Based Therapies
      • Early-Phase Pipeline Analysis
    • Access and Reimbursement Overview
      • Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
        • United States
        • EU5
        • Japan
      • Looking for More?
    • Methodology
      • Market Forecast Assumptions File
      • Bottom-Up Forecasting Overview
      • Bottom-Up Forecasting Assumptions
        • General Sources of Data
        • General Statements About Pricing
        • Dosing, Days of Therapy, and Compliance
        • Biosimilar Erosion
        • Out-Year Forecasting
        • Emerging Therapy Prices
      • Primary Market Research
        • Experts Interviewed
    • Appendix
      • Dry and Wet AMD Bibliography

Author(s): Thomas Cronin, Ph.D; Emma McFadden, PhD; Natalie Taylor, PhD; Deepti Sharma, MPH

Since joining DRG in late 2019, Tom has worked on reports focusing on psychiatric and ophthalmologic disorders for the CNS ; His background is in biochemistry and he previously worked in the intellectual property field as a registered Patent Agent. Prior to joining DRG, Tom was an Intellectual Property Manager in a Boston-based biopharmaceutical company focusing on treating metabolic diseases and disorders. He has also worked for several internationally recognized law firms representing corporate and institutional clients in all matters of life science – related intellectual property.

Emma McFadden, is a  Director within the Central Nervous System/Ophthalmology disorders group. Her main focus is on ophthalmic indications, such as age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and diabetic macular edema, although she has authored research across a number of other indications, including multiple sclerosis and ; Prior to joining Decision Resources Group, Emma earned a in neuroscience and a in biochemistry from Trinity College Dublin.  

Natalie Taylor, is a Principal Business Insights Analyst with the central nervous system/ophthalmology disorders team at Decision Resources Group. She has over ten years of experience authoring primary and market research reports for pharmaceutical industry clients across multiple psychiatry, pain, neurology, and ophthalmology therapy areas. Prior to joining DRG, Dr. Taylor worked at QuintilesIMS as manager of the central nervous system portfolio of Disease Insights market forecasting offerings. She completed her in Physiology at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, where she studied the role of serotonergic neurons in the medullary raphe on modulating respiratory responses in mammals. She holds a in Biology from Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

Deepti started working with Decision Resources Group as an intern in early 2017 and currently works as an associate works with a team of global epidemiologists in providing robust forecast estimates for multiple indications. Deepti holds a Master’s in Public Health degree from PGIMER School of Public Health, and a bachelor’s degree in dental surgery from HP Government Dental College from Himachal Pradesh University, India.  


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