Dry and Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration | Landscape & Forecast | Disease Landscape & Forecast

Publish date: June 2019

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The wet AMD market is dominated by three therapies—Roche/Genentech/Novartis’s Lucentis, approved for wet AMD, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Avastin, approved for cancer but commonly compounded and used off-label for wet AMD, and Regeneron/Bayer HealthCare/Santen’s Eylea, which has experienced strong and continued uptake at the expense of the other drugs within this class. Although the majority of AMD patients are diagnosed with the dry form of AMD, management of this disease type is limited to minimally effective vitamin formulations because no prescription pharmacotherapies are approved for this large and underserved subpopulation. While the bulk of emerging therapies target wet AMD patients because the pathology presents clearer drug targets, there are a few novel therapies being tested in patients with the dry form of AMD—an indication that has been plagued by several  Phase III failures.

Questions Answered:

  • Do KOLs perceive any differences between the mainstays Avastin, Eylea, and Lucentis? How is their use expected to change, if at all, over the next ten years?
  • Biosimilar versions of Eylea and Lucentis are forecast to launch within the next ten years. What is the likely impact of these therapies on current and emerging VEGF inhibitors?
  • A substantial unmet need in wet AMD exists for therapies with longer dosing intervals than offered by current therapies. To what extent are the emerging VEGF inhibitors brolucizumab (Novartis) and abicipar pegol (Allergan) expected to capitalize on this unmet need?

Product Description:

Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Primary Research: Approximately 20 country-specific interviews with thought-leading retinal specialists Supported by survey data collected for this and other DRG research.

Epidemiology: Total prevalence of late AMD by country, segmented by GA and wet AMD subpopulations, including diagnosed and drug-treated rates.

Forecast: Ten-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key GA and wet AMD therapies through 2028, segmented by brands/biosimilars and epidemiological subpopulations.

Emerging therapies: Phase III/PR: 6 drugs; Phase II drugs.

Table of contents

  • Disease Landscape & Forecast
    • Key Updates
      • June 2019
      • February 2019
    • Executive Summary
      • Key Findings
    • Market Outlook
      • Key Findings
        • Expert Insight
        • Market Overview
      • Market Drivers and Constraints
        • What Factors Are Driving the Market for AMD?
        • What Factors Are Constraining the Market for AMD?
      • Drug Class-Specific Trends
        • Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Inhibitors
      • Alternative Market Scenarios
    • Forecast
    • Etiology and Pathophysiology
      • Key Findings
        • Expert Insight
        • Disease Overview
      • Pathophysiology
        • Disease Classifications
        • Anatomy of the Eye
        • Pathology
      • Etiology
      • Risk Factors
        • Genetic Risk Factors
        • Other Risk Factors
      • Key Pathways and Drug Targets
    • Epidemiology Overview
      • Key Findings
        • Expert Insight
      • Epidemiology Populations
        • Total Prevalent Cases: Late AMD
        • Total Prevalent Cases: GA and Wet AMD
        • Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Late AMD
        • Drug-Treated Prevalent Cases of Late AMD
    • Current Treatment
      • Key Findings
      • Treatment Goals
      • Key Current Therapies
        • Overview
        • VEGF Inhibitors
        • Photosensitizing Agents
      • Medical Practice
        • Overview
        • Treatment Guidelines
        • Drug Selection
        • Region-Specific Treatment Practices
    • Unmet Need Overview
      • Current and Future Attainment of Unmet Needs in AMD
    • Emerging Therapies
      • Key Findings
        • Expert Insight
      • Key Emerging Therapies
        • Notable Developments Among Key Emerging Therapies for AMD
        • PDGF Inhibitors
        • VEGF Inhibitors
        • Biosimilar VEGF Inhibitors
        • Complement System Inhibitors
        • Cell-Based Therapies
      • Early-Phase Pipeline Analysis
    • Access and Reimbursement Overview
      • Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
        • United States
        • EU5
        • Japan
    • Methodology
      • Market Forecast Assumptions File
      • Bottom-Up Forecasting Overview
      • Bottom-Up Forecasting Assumptions
        • General Sources of Data
        • General Statements About Pricing
        • Dosing, Days of Therapy, and Compliance
        • Biosimilar Erosion
        • Out-Year Forecasting
        • Emerging Therapy Prices
      • Primary Market Research
        • Experts Interviewed
    • Appendix
      • Dry and Wet AMD Bibliography

Author(s): Natalie Taylor, PhD; Emma McFadden, PhD; Nicole Zhang, MPH; Shefali Gulati, MBA Pharm

Natalie Taylor, is a Principal Business Insights Analyst with the central nervous system/ophthalmology disorders team at Decision Resources Group. She has over ten years of experience authoring primary and market research reports for pharmaceutical industry clients across multiple psychiatry, pain, neurology, and ophthalmology therapy areas. Prior to joining DRG, Dr. Taylor worked at QuintilesIMS as manager of the central nervous system portfolio of Disease Insights market forecasting offerings. She completed her in Physiology at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, where she studied the role of serotonergic neurons in the medullary raphe on modulating respiratory responses in mammals. She holds a in Biology from Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

Emma McFadden, is a  Director within the Central Nervous System/Ophthalmology disorders group. Her main focus is on ophthalmic indications, such as age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and diabetic macular edema, although she has authored research across a number of other indications, including multiple sclerosis and ; Prior to joining Decision Resources Group, Emma earned a in neuroscience and a in biochemistry from Trinity College Dublin.  

Nicole Zhang is an Epidemiologist at Decision Resources Group. She focuses on the epidemiology of oncology and cardiovascular disorders. She holds an from Tufts Medical School where she specialized in epidemiology and biostatistics. She also holds a in Chemistry and Statistics from Mount Holyoke College. Prior to joining Decision Resources, she worked as a research analyst at Massachusetts General Hospital where she independently managed data from food information survey conducted in Chelsea, MA. She has also worked at Massachusetts Department of Public Health where she conducted secondary research in the fields of gestational diabetes.

Shefali Gulati, Associate analyst, is part of the Central Nervous System, Pain, and Ophthalmology team at Decision Resources Group. She is responsible for performing extensive secondary market research and analysis for major pharmaceutical markets. She comes with one year of experience working on multiple client projects revolving around opportunity assessment, competitive landscape, pipeline analysis, and key product profiling. She holds a MBA degree in Pharmaceutical Management from the National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research (NIPER) in India and Bachelor’s in Pharmacy from DIPSAR.