The rapidly expanding and aging populations of the Latin American (LatAm) countries, in conjunction with the increasing risk of breast cancer, are driving growth in newly diagnosed cases. Yet there is more to sizing the breast cancer patient market than accurately estimating the increasing diagnosed incident cases; the [neo] adjuvant (newly diagnosed stage I-III cases) and first-line drug-treatable populations (recurring stage I-III cases and newly diagnosed stage IV cases) are heavily dependent on the stage at diagnosis, a metric that is also likely to change over time. Due to increased awareness and investment in national breast cancer screening programs, the stage at diagnosis of breast cancer in the key Latin American markets is set to shift dramatically over the next 20 years; the number of patients diagnosed with early-stage disease (stages I and II) is expected to increase from 45-58% in 2010 to more than 70% in 2030 Diagnosed incident stage I-III cases make up the [neo] adjuvant breast cancer population. With incident cases increasing and stage at diagnosis set to shift to earlier stages in Latin America, the [neo] adjuvant drug-treatable population will increase by 51% and the first-line drug-treatable population will increase by 21% over the next 10 years. In the [neo] adjuvant setting in Brazil and Mexico, with HR+ and HER2-overexpressing tumors present in 70% and 22% of Latin American breast cancer cases, respectively, the growth in hormone therapy and HER2-targeted agents is expected to increase by 51% over the next 10 years.
Markets covered: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Epidemiology: Country-specific diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer, by stage and molecular subtype. [Neo] adjuvant and first-line drug-treatable breast cancer populations for Brazil and Mexico. Forecasting methods used.
Competitor comparison: Forecasting methods and forecast diagnosed incident cases compared with Globocan.