Last Updated 18 November 2013
The migraine market consists of a multitude of therapies that either acutely treat migraine attacks or serve as prophylactic treatment. Among acute antimigraine therapies, triptans and NSAIDs/general analgesics are most extensively prescribed. All the available triptan products, which constitute more than 70% of the total migraine major-market sales in 2012, have or will face generic competition during our 2012-2022 forecast period. However, the sales losses accompanying such generic competition will be countered by the uptake of emerging acute therapies—including several reformulations of existing products—and, coupled with forecasted increases in both the acute and prophylactic drug-treated populations, the migraine market will grow from nearly $3.6 billion in 2012 to more than $5.4 billion in 2022. Despite the widespread genericization of the acute treatment market—the greatest extent will occur by the midyear of our forecast period—opportunity remains for acute antimigraine therapies that can offer improved efficacy over available triptans or that can offer nontriptan pharmacological options to patients who do not respond to triptans or in whom triptans are contraindicated (e.g., those with cardiovascular risks). The most commercially promising emerging therapies, Allergan’s orally inhaled dihydroergotamine (DHE; Levadex) and CoLucid’s 5-HT1F receptor agonist lasmiditan, will only partially fill the unmet need for acute, nontriptan agents, yet each is forecast to garner significant peak-year sales. At the same time, although a greater unmet need exists for new prophylactic therapies, we do not forecast any new prophylactic therapies to launch during the forecast period. Allergan’s onabotulinumtoxinA (Botox) is the remaining branded prophylactic therapy available, and, even though its use will largely be restricted to the chronic migraine population, we expect the drug will garner nearly $850 million in major-market sales by 2022, demonstrating the commercial opportunity for premium-priced therapies that offer alternatives (particularly with improved tolerability) in the otherwise generic prophylactic market.
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 36 country-specific interviews with neurologists and headache specialists.
Epidemiology: Number of total prevalent cases of episodic migraine (EM) and chronic migraine (CM). Number of total 12-month, diagnosed, and acutely drug-treated prevalent cases of EM and CM. Number of total 12-month, diagnosed, and prophylactically drug-treated prevalent cases of EM and CM. EM and CM prevalence by age. Number of total EM events.
Population segments in market forecast: Four populations are covered, comprising acute treatment and prophylactic treatment among episodic migraineurs and chronic migraineurs.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 11 drugs; Phase III/IV: 2 drugs; preregistered/registered: 3 drugs. Coverage of 10 preclinical/discovery and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: We forecast future trends in the markets for the acute and prophylactic treatment of episodic migraine and chronic migraine from 2012 to 2022, taking into account several anticipated new product launches and impending generics competition.