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Last Updated 12 September 2014
The type 2 diabetes therapy market will rapidly expand over our 2013-2023 study period, fueled by the disease’s increasing prevalence and a high unmet need for drugs that can effectively control the disease in the long term. A rich pipeline of novel agents is expected to launch, promoting sustained market growth. Among the drug classes expected to undergo the most rapid growth is the sodium glucose cotransporter (SGLT)-2 inhibitors, led by AstraZeneca’s dapagliflozin (Forxiga/Farxiga) and Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma’s canagliflozin (Invokana). However, these and other emerging therapies will face major challenges, including reimbursement hurdles and an increasingly stringent regulatory environment. Nevertheless, as the patient population expands and significant needs remain, commercial opportunity will continue to grow.
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 27 country-specific interviews with thought leaders.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of type 2 diabetes, segmented by body mass index (BMI) status and renal impairment status. Prevalence of prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance [IGT]).
Population segments in market forecast: Type 2 diabetes.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 21 drugs; Phase III: 12 drugs; preregistration: 9 drugs. Coverage of select preclinical and Phase I products.
Market forecast features: Using a patient-based model, we forecast population sizes and drug sales for type 2 diabetes through 2023.
Alternative market scenarios: Actavis’s generic saxagliptin is not considered to violate AstraZeneca’s U.S. patent 7,915,400 and enters the market in February 2017.
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