Last Updated 9 December 2013
The sizable therapeutic market for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a disease that is closely associated with smoking, continues to expand. More patients are diagnosed with COPD every year as populations age, efforts to promote awareness of the disease continue, and the use of spirometry to diagnose COPD becomes more widespread. The expanding COPD patient population has great unmet need because truly disease-modifying pharmacotherapies are lacking; current treatment is dominated by bronchodilators that help alleviate symptoms but do not reverse the progression of COPD. However, polypharmacy is common and therapies that offer incremental improvements over existing treatment modalities will garner use as they alleviate some of the burden associated with pharmacotherapy. Major-market COPD sales will grow substantially over our forecast period owing to the uptake of once-daily, fixed-dose combinations.
Questions Answered in This Report:
- Aging demographics and increasing diagnosis rates will lead to an expanded drug-treated population through 2022. What are the emerging opportunities in the expanding COPD drug-treated population? How can marketers attract new COPD patients entering the market?
- New monotherapies from existing classes have begun to enter the COPD market. How has the launch of new LAMAs, such as Novartis’s glycopyrronium (Seebri) and Forest/Almirall/Kyorin’s aclidinium (Tudorza/Eklira), impacted prescribing of Boehringer Ingelheim/Pfizer’s tiotropium (Spiriva)? How will an increasingly competitive market impact the uptake of other recent launches, including Novartis’s indacaterol (Arcapta/Onbrez)?
- Two once-daily long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroid combinations will be launched in the major markets under study before 2022. Will these new entrants, GlaxoSmithKline/Theravance’s vilanterol/fluticasone furoate (Breo/Relvar) and Novartis’s indacaterol/mometasone, displace key established agents such as GlaxoSmithKline’s salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (Advair/Seretide/Adoair) and AstraZeneca’s salmeterol/budesonide (Symbicort)? Will physicians favor inhalers with established molecules or prefer the dosing convenience offered by once-daily agents comprising new molecules?
- The next drug class to emerge for COPD will be fixed-dose combinations of LABAs and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs). Will physicians consider twice-daily agents in this class, such as Almirall/Forest Laboratories’ formoterol/aclidinium and Pearl Therapeutics’ formoterol/glycopyrrolate, or will they insist on agents with once-daily dosing? To what degree will sales for COPD of Boehringer Ingelheim’s olodaterol/tiotropium cannibalize sales for COPD of tiotropium?
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 35 country-specific interviews with thought-leading pulmonologists.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of COPD in patients aged 40 or older; subpopulations by severity (mild, moderate, severe/very severe) and misdiagnosed; growth potential of the COPD population over the 2012-2022 study period.
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 11 drugs; Phase III: 4 drugs; preregistration: 5 drugs.
Market forecast features: We reconciled our 2012 COPD sales estimates based on epidemiological data, number of treated days, compliance, annual pricing, and country-specific prescribing practices with reported COPD sales and used our patient-based model to forecast sales through 2022. We included estimates of symptomatic COPD (i.e., patients diagnosed with COPD who have normal spirometry data).
Donal Minihan, M.V.B., Ph.D.