Over the next ten years, more than 15 million men worldwide will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, resulting in nearly 3 million first-line drug-treatment opportunities in the metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) setting. However, the greatest growth worldwide will occur in the nonmetastatic prevalent population, which will expand an average of 67% in the lower-income countries and about 27% in the high-income countries. Of all regions, the highest growth will occur in the lower-income countries of Asia/Oceania, where case counts will double over the next decade. These increases can be attributed primarily to shifts in stage at diagnosis due to improved detection of prostate cancer. Insight into global epidemiology is particularly crucial for prostate cancer because of the vastly different stage distributions in high- and low-income countries and the implications of this difference on drug revenue per patient. Although the highest profits occur in the mCRPC treatment setting, this subset is experiencing the slowest growth globally as a result of PSA testing and the subsequent early detection of prostate cancer. The drastic improvements in the treatment of prostate cancer over the last decade have greatly reduced the recurrence of prostate cancer and improved overall survival. However, in terms of which clinical setting will experience the most future growth in DTPs, attention must be shifted to hormonal therapies.

Questions Answered in This Report:

  • The lower-income countries of Asia/Oceania will see the strongest growth in newly diagnosed incident cases over the next decade at 91%. How does this compare to other regions and will growth be comparable across all settings of drug-treatment?

  • Improvements in survival and shifts in stage distribution will slow growth in the size of the mCRPC drug treatable population, currently the most profitable treatment setting in prostate cancer. Which regions does it make most sense to invest in to continue strong sales of mCRPC drugs?

  • The growth in the number of non-metastatic prevalent cases of prostate cancer ranges from 33% high-income countries of Asia/Oceania to 100% in the lower-income countries of this region. What are the key drivers in these trends and how does this compare to the metastatic prevalent cases?
Author(s): Sarah Anderson, M.Sc.

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