BURLINGTON, Mass., Nov. 7, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group (DRG) finds that ex-manufacturer sales for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) will grow 2% annually from an estimated $21 billion in 2016 to greater than $25 billion in 2026 in the major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan). DRG projects that recent market entrants and an additional six new brands will earn more than $9 billion in combined sales at the end of the forecast period, led by Roche/Genentech's anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody (MAb) Ocrevus. Expanding DMT choice and the launch of additional generic alternatives will further complicate the MS treatment algorithm, expand the drug-treated patient population, and continue to drive market fragmentation.
Other key findings from DRG's Multiple Sclerosis: Disease Landscape & Forecast report:
- Driven by the launch of Ocrevus, DRG estimates 6% annual growth of the G7 drug-treated population in primary-progressive MS (PP-MS), a new segmentation in our model. Ocrevus and the launch of Novartis's novel S1P receptor modulator siponimod, which demonstrated efficacy in SP-MS patients, will support lesser yet notable growth in the drug-treated secondary-progressive MS (SP-MS) population.
- Anti-CD20 MAbs (from Roche/Genentech, Novartis/Genmab, TG Therapeutics) and novel oral brands (from Novartis, Celgene/Receptos, Actelion, Alkermes, and Merck Serono) will further intensify competition in relapsing forms of MS, garnering combined major-market patient share of approximately 20% in the relapsing-remitting MS segment by the end of our study period.
- We forecast a continued decline in use of platform injectables (IFN-βs, Copaxone, and glatiramer acetate generics), reaching approximately one-third total patient share in 2026, while oral DMTs (Tecfidera, Gilenya, Aubagio, new brands, and generics) garner more than 40% share by that time. The looming entry of generic oral DMTs and additional generic formulations of glatiramer acetate, important disruptors in this high-cost market, will add to a complex dynamic among early-line mainstays.
Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Sarah Soucy:
- "In line with data from our ongoing U.S. launch-tracking series, we expect robust uptake of Ocrevus in the underserved PP-MS population, with spillover use in nonrelapsing SP-MS. In relapsing forms of MS, we foresee mostly switch use, but anti-CD20s MAbs stoke the perennial debate among interviewed experts about early intervention with high-efficacy drugs—a treatment pattern that could proliferate with time, safety willing."
- "Thanks to new agents' diverse clinical profiles and a heterogeneous disease, we expect all DMTs to establish a clinical role—some bigger than others—as neurologists strive to individualize treatment for their MS patients. However, we may be approaching the limit of efficacy that is achievable by immune-targeted drugs. Considerable need remains for therapies that halt or reverse disease progression through neuroprotective, remyelinating, or reparative mechanisms, truly the next frontier for clinical development in MS. Biogen's opicinumab, now under investigation in a new Phase II trial, could be a pioneering medication in this critical area."
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DRG, a subsidiary of Piramal Enterprises Ltd., is the premier source for global healthcare data and market intelligence. A trusted partner for over 20 years, DRG helps companies competing in the global healthcare industry make informed business decisions. Organizations committed to the developing and delivering life-changing therapies to patients rely on DRG's in-house team of expert healthcare analysts, data scientists, and consultants for critical guidance. DRG products and services, built on extensive data assets and delivered by experts, empower organizations to succeed in complex healthcare markets.
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