Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that generic erosion following the patent expiry of Merck's Fosamax (alendronate) will prevent substantial growth in the market to treat osteoporosis and osteopenia through 2015.
The new Pharmacor report Osteoporosis finds that although several emerging drugs will capture significant patient and market share, the entry of generic alendronate will be a major factor in causing the market to plateau at $7.5 billion in 2015, up from $6.3 billion in 2005. The report also finds that bisphosphonates, including alendronate, will continue to dominate the market to treat osteoporosis in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, by 2015, Amgen's RANKL inhibitor denosumab will achieve blockbuster status and sales of parathyroid hormone analogues will more than triple to $1.4 billion.
"Amgen's denosumab is the only emerging agent with a novel mechanism of action that will launch during our forecast period," said Ramya Kollipara, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources, Inc. "Denosumab's novelty and convenient dosing will lead to substantial uptake that, combined with its premium price, will propel the drug to more than $1 billion in sales. We also forecast that sales of parathyroid hormone analogues will grow significantly, owing to a 50% increase in the overall drug-treated population, premium pricing, and increasing physician acceptance of these agents."
Osteoporosis is a major public health problem worldwide. According to the National Osteoporosis Foundation, an estimated 1.5 million bone fractures occur annually as a result of osteoporosis, resulting in $18 billion in direct medical costs in the United States in 2002. Annual costs are projected to approach $50 billion by 2040.
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