In 1999, 76.4 million people suffered from depression in the world's seven major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan). Despite the availability of numerous drug therapies for depression, unmet need persists. Each of the currently available drug therapies has been effective in only 50-70% of patients in clinical trials. Although the new selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) represent an advance, they are slow to act and they provoke side effects.

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Depression is a new study published by Decision Resources, Inc., that presents the latest findings on the etiology of depression, including expert opinion on recent genetic research in depression and the potential for pharmacogenomic treatment of this devastating disorder. We also offer a detailed analysis of selected investigational agents to treat depression, along with a ten-year projection of the antidepressant market.

Investigational agents in development for depression that are discussed in this study include novel formulations of currently available drugs such as r- fluoxetine and s-citalopram, the single-isomer versions of fluoxetine (Eli Lilly's Prozac) and citalopram (Lundbeck's Cipramil; Forest Laboratories' Celexa), respectively. Other investigational agents with commercial potential include a once-weekly formulation of fluoxetine; a version of fluoxetine that combines the drug with Eli Lilly's antipsychotic olanzapine (Zyprexa); and substance P antagonists and corticotropin-releasing factor antagonists. The latter two antagonists both represent a dramatic departure from the standard antidepressant agents that affect the uptake of the neurotransmitters serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine.

We estimate that sales of antidepressant drugs-in the treatment of depression only-exceeded $6.4 billion in 1999 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets. By 2009, we forecast seven-market sales of these agents for the treatment of depression will exceed $8.6 billion as a result of the introduction of novel agents and modest expansion in the diagnosed and drug-treated populations. In 2009, SSRI sales for the treatment of depressive disorders will exceed $4.8 billion, despite numerous patent expirations and generic competition in most markets. We expect that total sales of Eli Lilly's novel fluoxetine formulations for the treatment of depression will exceed $2.4 billion in 2009, or half of total SSRI sales for depression that year. The success of these agents will result largely from Eli Lilly's strong presence in the antidepressant market, and from their modest advantages in tolerability and convenience.

Depression is part of Cognos, one of six Pharmacor services that evaluate the commercial potential of drugs in research and development.

Contact: Frank Sama, 781.487.3753 (telephone), 781.487.5750 (fax), or sama@dresources.com (e-mail). In Europe, contact Francoise Bidart, +32.2.351.4082 (telephone), +32.2.351.2347 (fax), or fbidart@compuserve.com (e-mail). In Japan, contact Makiko Yoshimoto, +81.3.5401.2615 (telephone), +81.3.5401.2617 (fax), or makiko@bl.mmtr.or.jp (e-mail). http://www.dresources.com

Decision Resources, Inc., is a world leader in research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Founded as a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the company has provided strategic information services for 30 years, assessing industry trends in the international health care and pharmaceutical industries. Drawing on a closely linked international network of experts, Decision Resources offers its clients the most comprehensive analyses of therapy markets available.

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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.

Contact: Frank Sama, 781-487-3753, sama@dresources.com

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