Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Genentech/Novartis's Lucentis will become the Decision Resources' proprietary clinical gold standard by 2011 because of its ability to generate higher total sales in the United States and Europe due to its higher price. Although ophthalmologists perceive Lucentis as offering comparable efficacy to the current clinical gold standard, Avastin, Lucentis exhibits slightly greater affinity than Avastin to vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). If data continue to be positive for Avastin however, it will likely maintain a strong patient-share advantage over Lucentis and others because of its lower price.
The new report entitled Diabetic Retinopathy: Future Demand to Be Driven by Agents that Improve Visual Acuity also finds that a therapy that is more effective than Avastin at improving visual acuity when used in conjunction with laser photocoagulation therapy, would earn a 20 percent patient share in the treatment of diabetic retinopathy. Surveyed ophthalmologists indicate that an improvement -- not maintenance -- in visual acuity is fast becoming the target outcome of treatment for diabetic retinopathy including for patients with diabetic macular edema.
"Ophthalmologists we surveyed indicated that they would prescribe agents that fulfill either the Minimal Acceptable or Major Achievement profiles to 20 percent of their diabetic retinopathy patients," said Caroline Gates, B.Sc., analyst at Decision Resources. "Given the price set for each of the target product profiles and the forecasted size of the diabetic retinopathy patient population in 2011, a 20 percent patient share would result in sales of $42.7 million for an agent fitting the Minimal Acceptable drug profile and $320.3 million for an agent fitting the Major Achievement profile."
About the Report
Diabetic Retinopathy: Future Demand to Be Driven by Agents that Improve Visual Acuity is a DecisionBase 2008 report from Decision Resources. DecisionBase 2008 combines market forecasts with clinical and commercial end points to assess market share projections in 35 indications. These outputs are driven by quantitative and qualitative primary research. DecisionBase 2008 provides detailed market share, patient share, and price-per-day projections for emerging drugs in development. The market share projections are based on prescriber surveys that compare physicians' expectations of a potential target product profile with an emerging product profile of the leading drugs in development.
The report can be purchased by contacting Decision Resources. Members of the media may request an interview with an analyst.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources, Inc. company.
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First Call Analyst:
SOURCE: Decision Resources
CONTACT: Elizabeth Marshall of Decision Resources, +1-781-296-2563,
Web site: http://www.decisionresources.com/