Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the U.S. and European markets for branded biologics in the four key biologic classes (ESPs, G-CSF, insulin and insulin analogues, and hGH) will decline through 2015 as biogenerics gradually become available. In the United States, a major turning point will occur in 2013 as biogeneric ESPs and G-CSF become available; the U.S. branded biologics market for these four classes will shrink from $8 billion in 2012 to less than $3.8 billion in 2015. In Europe, competition in these key classes has begun with the launch of the hGH biosimilar Omnitrope this year, and will continue with biogeneric launches in the other classes in 2007 and 2008.
According to the new report entitled Biogenerics 2006-2015: An Emerging Reality for Biologic Brands, companies with biologic products facing patent expiries will face significant competition from a collection of biogeneric companies which are already developing follow-on agents. Among those with the most to lose from biogenerics in these drug classes are Amgen and Johnson & Johnson with their respective brands of epoetin alfa (Amgen's Epogen and Johnson & Johnson's Procrit/Eprex). These multi-billion-dollar products represent attractive targets for biogeneric developers, and payers are eager to reduce spending on these biologics through the aggressive adoption of biogeneric agents.
"The entry of biogenerics will impact biologic markets more significantly than any other event over the next ten years," said Andrew Merseth, analyst at Decision Resources. "Even though biogenerics will not enjoy an easy path to market and rapid adoption that we saw when generic versions of Prozac, Paxil, and Zocor became available, our primary research shows that physicians and payers are prepared to begin prescribing and reimbursing biogenerics as they become available."
U.S. Payers To Embrace Biogenerics
According to surveys conducted with pharmacy directors for this report, U.S. payers expect to incorporate biogeneric agents into their formularies quite rapidly, though surprisingly not as quickly as U.S. specialists expect to begin using them. Approximately two-thirds of physicians plan to prescribe biogenerics within six months of launch, while only 50% of pharmacy directors expect to reimburse these products within this same time period. Nonetheless, many U.S. payers surveyed predict that their formularies will include biogeneric products within one year of their availability.
About Biogenerics 2006-2015: An Emerging Reality for Biologic Brands
Biogenerics 2006-2015: An Emerging Reality for Biologic Brands is the first and only biogenerics report to include primary research with physicians and payers on their perspective of these new entrants into the biologics marketplace. The report includes insights from 160 specialists in the United States and Europe, and also includes insights from 25 U.S. pharmacy directors.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources, Inc. (http://www.decisionresources.com/) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets.
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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.
CONTACT: Elizabeth Marshall of Decision Resources, Inc.,
Web site: http://www.decisionresources.com/