Decision Resources, Inc., has just published Breast Cancer, a new study that highlights key strategic issues and trends in breast cancer (CaB) drug development and treatment. CaB is the most common malignancy among women. Close to 400,000 cases are diagnosed annually in the seven major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan), and approximately 150,000 women die each year from the disease in these countries. The incidence of CaB is climbing, essentially because of the growing number of elderly women. However, CaB death rates have fallen during the past decade, primarily as a result of improvements in radiographic screening technology, widespread implementation of screening programs heralding earlier diagnosis, and the use of adjuvant treatments (hormone therapy, chemotherapy, and well-targeted radiotherapy) after surgery.
Despite improved mortality rates, unmet needs in the management of breast cancer remain; thus, CaB drug development will continue to be an area of robust growth. We estimate that sales of CaB drug therapies in the major markets will grow at 10% per year through 2009, driven by the following imminent developments:
Changes in medical practice will emphasize aggressive systemic adjuvant drug treatment of patients with early-stage (stages I and II) CaB and a high risk of tumor recurrence. Adoption of aggressive systemic therapy in early- stage disease is significant because the number of patients diagnosed with and treated for early-stage disease far exceeds that in the traditional arena for intensive systemic therapy-metastatic (stage IV) disease. As a consequence, we expect to see greater use of expensive drugs-such as taxanes and the monoclonal antibody trastuzumab (Genentech/Roche's Herceptin)-in the adjuvant regimens given to patients with early-stage disease.
The second driver of market value is the fact that many new molecules are in late-stage development programs and will, within the next one to five years, become available for use in large numbers of CaB patients. These new treatments will offer the prospect of greater or more durable efficacy than some current systemic therapies. The market for agents to treat CaB totaled $1.7 billion in 1999, and we anticipate that it will expand to $4.3 billion in 2009.
Breast Cancer is part of Onkos, one of six Pharmacor services that evaluate the commercial potential of drugs in research and development.
Decision Resources, Inc., is a world leader in pharmaceutical research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Founded as a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the company has provided strategic information services for 30 years.
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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.
Contact: Frank Sama of Decision Resources, Inc., 781-296-2553,