Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, after peaking at $6.3 billion in 2011, the schizophrenia drug market will decline to $5.2 billion in 2019, owing to the loss of patent protection for most atypical antipsychotics on the market.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Schizophrenia reveal that the generic erosion of key agents -- most notably Eli Lilly's Zyprexa and AstraZeneca/Astellas's Seroquel -- will constrain market sales over the next decade in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
"Because the schizophrenia drug market is saturated with well-established antipsychotics, emerging therapies must differentiate themselves to be competitive," said Decision Resources Analyst Anne-Elise Tobin, Ph.D. "The opportunities in this indication lie in developing therapies that are effective at treating the negative or cognitive symptoms associated with schizophrenia."
The launch of depot formulations of four atypical antipsychotics will partially offset the decline in the schizophrenia market while providing new treatment options for patients. These new depots offer advantages in dosing and administration compared with the only marketed atypical depot formulation prior to 2009, Janssen's Risperdal Consta. Emerging depot formulations will command premium pricing and will account for nearly one-third of major-market sales in 2019.
"Janssen's Invega Sustenna will enjoy the greatest market success through 2019, securing peak-year major-market sales of nearly $700 million," Dr. Tobin said.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that, as most current therapies function through similar mechanisms of action and are not completely effective in all patients, interviewed experts point to the need for antipsychotics with novel mechanisms of action. Eli Lilly's LY-2140023 will be the first agent with a novel mechanism of action to reach the market, launching in 2013 in the United States and in 2014 in Europe. LY-2140023, a drug with blockbuster potential, will provide physicians with a new treatment option that will most likely be used in conjunction with currently available agents in an attempt to gain better control of the disease.
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