Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launches of Abbott/Eisai's Humira and UCB's Cimzia for the treatment of Crohn's disease will drive sales of the TNF-alpha drug class to more than double, from $660 million in 2005 to more than $1.3 billion in 2015.
The new Pharmacor report 'Crohn's Disease' finds that the launches in the United States and Europe of Humira and Cimzia in 2007 to treat Crohn's disease, combined with the late-stage development of several additional high- priced biological agents, will usher in a new era of expansion in the market to treat the disease. These biological agents include Berlex/Schering AG's Leukine and Abbott's ABT-874, both of which utilize novel mechanisms of action and will provide additional treatment options for patients who fail therapy with TNF-alpha inhibitors.
Humira will be rapidly adopted by gastroenterologists seeking alternatives to Centocor/Schering-Plough/Tanabe's Remicade and will supplant Remicade as the market-leading therapy for Crohn's disease in 2015. Also, most gastroenterologists have had at least some first-hand experience using Humira off-label for the disease in treatment-refractory patients. Cimzia, the other TNF-alpha inhibitor that will launch in 2007 for Crohn's disease, will be adopted more slowly than Humira because -- although physicians are optimistic about its efficacy -- they are less familiar with the drug than Humira.
"Thought leaders believe that Humira is as effective as Remicade but that it offers superior convenience," said Decision Resources Therapeutic Area Director Cindy Mundy, Ph.D. "Humira also benefits from its prior approvals for other indications, which have provided additional safety data and postmarketing results. Additionally, while we believe Humira will be prescribed by physicians more readily than Cimzia, we forecast that sales of Cimzia will nevertheless reach $200 million in 2015 and will continue to grow thereafter."
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