Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launch and uptake of more than 20 novel antidiabetic drugs over the next 10 years will drive the type 2 diabetes market to increase by $12.5 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Type 2 Diabetes finds that both novel and existing DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues - such as Merck's Januvia, Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca's Onglyza and Amylin/Eli Lilly/Alkermes' Byetta LAR - hold the greatest promise for type 2 diabetes because these drug classes improve upon key areas of safety and efficacy. DPP-IV inhibitors have a very low risk of hypoglycemia and an excellent tolerability profile, making them suitable for widespread use. GLP-1 analogues, which combine superior glucose-lowering and weight loss capabilities compared with other drug classes, are particularly useful treatments for the significant proportion of type 2 diabetics who are obese.
"The commercial potential for drugs with demonstrated disease-modifying capabilities and long-term efficacy is reflected in the burgeoning pipeline for type 2 diabetes, which currently has more than 400 drugs in active development," said Decision Resources Analyst Christine Helliwell, Ph.D. "However, with a greater regulatory burden in the United States and an increasingly crowded market, the barriers for success are higher than ever before."
The report also finds that generic competition will weaken the market share of the PPAR-gamma agonists--Takeda's Actos and GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia--reducing sales of these agents by more than 50 percent over the 2008 to 2018 study period. The PPAR-gamma agonists, along with metformin (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck Sorono's Glucophage/Glucophage XR, Biovail/Depomed's Glumetza, Watson's Fortamet, generics) and the sulfonylureas, both of which are already generically available, are the most commonly prescribed first-, second-, and third-line oral therapies. Generic availability of all three drug classes will provide formidable competition for new, more-expensive drugs in the market.
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