Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the antipsychotic drug market will experience negative growth falling from $15 billion in 2006 to a little over $10 billion in 2015. According to the new Pharmacor report entitled Antipsychotics: Analysis of Disease Markets and Emerging Agents, the tumble will be due to generic erosion, reimbursement constraints, and the lack of ground-breaking emerging therapies.
The most severe threat to the antipsychotic drug market is the risk of therapeutic substitution with generic risperidone. Risperidone loses patent protection in 2008 in the United States, in 2007 in Europe, and in 2006 in Japan.
"The launch of generic risperidone will affect the sales of all branded atypical antipsychotics -- both those currently on the market and emerging drugs," said Kate Hohenberg, director at Decision Resources, Inc. "Although this trend did not happen in the antidepressant arena following Prozac's patent expiration, it will happen with risperidone because of the relatively high cost of antipsychotics and the growing reimbursement constraints in all regions -- even in the lucrative U.S. market."
Antipsychotics represented the fourth-highest-ranking drug class in 2005 worldwide drug sales, and two of the top ten drugs in worldwide sales are atypical antipsychotics. The pharmaceutical industry is still banking this market will continue to deliver: at least 14 companies are developing antipsychotic drugs that are based on the same mechanism of action utilized by currently available atypical antipsychotics; and four of these companies are developing more than one such drug.
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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.
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