BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that the entry of 13 novel therapies into the non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) market will drive the market's growth from $5.2 billion in 2013 to $8.5 billion in 2023. The entry of four immune checkpoint inhibitors, namely the programmed death-1 (PD-1) inhibitors Opdivo (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Ono Pharmaceutical) and Keytruda (Merck & Co), and the PD-ligand-1 (PD-L1) inhibitors MDPL-3280A (Genentech/Roche/Chugai) and MEDI-4736 (AstraZeneca/MedImmune), will be the major driver of growth due to their premium price and robust uptake across treatment settings. Notably, the NSCLC market will grow despite the generic/biosimilar erosion of key branded current therapies, including Eli Lilly's Alimta, Genentech/Roche/Astellas/Chugai's Tarceva and Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Avastin.
Other key findings from the Pharmacor report entitled Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer:
- Sequential treatment of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI)-refractory patients: Novartis' Zykadia became the first agent to be approved for patients treated with Xalkori (Pfizer), and Decision Resources Group expects that together with Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Alecensa, Zykadia will become the standard of care for these patients. Similarly, AstraZeneca's AZD-9291 and Clovis Oncology/Celgene's rociletinib will become the treatment of choice for EGFR TKI-treated patients who harbor EGFR-T790M mutations.
- Squamous-cell NSCLC: Decision Resources Group anticipates Eli Lilly's necitumumab will be the first targeted therapy approved specifically for this underserved patient population. It will be the entry of Opdivo and Keytruda in the first-line setting, however, that will cause a major change in the treatment algorithm of squamous-cell patients.
- Stage I-III NSCLC: The treatment of stage I-III patients will remain largely unchanged over the 2013-2023 forecast period. The only new entrant will be MEDI-4736 as a consolidation therapy following concurrent chemoradiotherapy in stage III patients and will thus do little to lessen the dependence of early-stage patients on chemotherapeutic approaches.
Other comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Orestis Mavroudis-Chocholis, Ph.D.:
- "PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors grasp experts' attention the most. Thought leaders are unable to differentiate between them across most metrics, with the exception of response rates in PD-L1 positive patients, based on currently available data. The variety of PD-L1 testing methodologies across trials precludes robust comparison of the data and could be a significant hurdle in prescribing."
- "Of the 13 emerging therapies we forecast to launch, eight are being developed for biomarker-defined patient populations, including the KRAS- and BRAF-V600E-mutation-positive patient populations. KRAS-mutation-positive patients, who account for approximately 25 percent of all NSCLC, offer a significant commercial opportunity, not fully addressed by AstraZeneca's selumetinib."
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