Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that generic competition will end the robust growth of the schizophrenia drug market. Atypical antipsychotic sales will decrease from $5.4 billion in 2005 to $4.8 billion in 2015. All five currently on-patent agents -- Janssen's Risperdal and Risperdal Consta (risperidone), Eli Lilly's Zyprexa (olanzapine), AstraZeneca's Seroquel (quetiapine), Pfizer's Geodon/Zeldox (ziprasidone), and Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka's Abilify (aripiprazole) -- will lose patent protection in the United States by 2015. Risperidone is the first to face generic competition, in 2008 in the United States, 2007 in Europe, and 2006 in Japan.
"Generic competition's effect on the Risperdal brand will be most profound in the U.S. market -- we forecast that 80% of patients will be on a generic form of the molecule in 2010, and the price of the generic will be 10% of the brand that year," said Nitasha Manchanda, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "Risperdal Consta, the depot form of the drug, remains on patent until 2013; however, its use will be too low to preserve franchise sales. In 2015, approximately 70% of drug-treated patients will be treated with a generic antipsychotic."
The new Pharmacor report entitled Schizophrenia also reveals that AstraZeneca/Targacept's ispronicline is likely to be the first available agent to treat the cognitive symptoms of schizophrenia. Sales of the emerging therapies that target cognitive symptoms in the disease will result in a $1 billion increase in market size between 2010 and 2015. Decision Resources forecasts that these drugs will be used as adjuncts to antipsychotic therapy in more than half of patients.
Pharmacor is a unique family of studies that assesses a host of market-impacting factors and analyzes the commercial outlook for drugs in research and development.
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