Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that sales of antiretroviral agents will drive substantial six percent annual growth in the HIV drug market through 2013 but significant generic erosion of key therapies thereafter will slow annual growth to less than two percent from 2013 to 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Human Immunodeficiency Virus finds that continued increase in the uptake of Bristol-Myers Squibb/Gilead's Atripla will drive the agent to garner the highest sales of any antiretroviral in 2013. However, from 2013 to 2018, Gilead's Quad will make significant inroads in the HIV market and by 2018 will become the highest-selling antiretroviral drug in the world's major markets, according to the report. Quad will combine favorable safety and efficacy with the dosing convenience of a single daily pill regimen, making it an ideal product for treatment-naive patients.
"The largest commercial opportunities in the HIV market lie in the development of therapies with enhanced convenience, such as co-formulations that minimize the number of pills and frequency of dosing, especially safe and effective therapies that target treatment-naive patients -- the most lucrative segment of the market," said Decision Resources Analyst Jose Avalos, Ph.D. "In addition, agents with reduced long-term toxicities can differentiate themselves in this crowded market."
The report also finds that two novel classes of antiretroviral agents -- the integrase inhibitors and CCR5 antagonists -- have been received with different levels of enthusiasm among interviewed experts and prescribers. Merck's Isentress, the first integrase inhibitor on the market, has been received with great enthusiasm by physicians and patients because of its efficacy, safety, and simple dosing. In contrast, Pfizer's Selzentry, the first-in-class CCR5 antagonist, has experienced significant obstacles that include its limited patient eligibility and the lengthy tropism test required for its prescription. The landscape for CCR5 antagonists is expected to improve, however, once better tropism tests and improved protocols are established.
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