Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that generic and/or branded-generic price erosion, increased product competition and cost consciousness will reduce the asthma drug market from $11.9 billion in 2008 to $10.1 billion in 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Asthma finds that the principal factor that will erode asthma drug sales will be the loss of brand exclusivity of Merck/Kyorin's Singulair, following the market entry of generic versions of the drug (beginning in 2012) in the United States, Europe and Japan. Generic and/or branded-generic erosion of several other key therapies such as GlaxoSmithKline's Advair/Seretide (which is marketed as Adoair in Japan by GlaxoSmithKline/Mitsubishi Tanabe), AstraZeneca's Pulmicort Respules and GlaxoSmithKline's Flovent/Flixotide/Flutide will also constrain the overall asthma market.
The report finds that, with no new blockbuster drug classes in the pipeline through 2018, the asthma market will be defined by product life-cycle management and incremental product development such as new formulations, new combinations and new delivery devices.
"Emerging drugs face the challenge of differentiating themselves from currently available therapies," said Decision Resources Analyst Amy Whiting Ph.D. "Agents that offer improved dosing convenience will effectively capture market share only in those markets where patients and/or third-party payers are willing to pay the price for this feature. Other key players will rely on competitive pricing, incremental gains in safety or improved efficacy to differentiate themselves from competitors."
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