Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the market entries of oral agents that do not require dose- adjustment or monitoring, particularly the entry of Bayer/Johnson & Johnson's future blockbuster Xarelto, will drive the anticoagulant drug market to more than double, from $3 billion in 2006 to $7.4 billion in 2016.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Anticoagulants finds that, with its fixed-dose, once-daily administration, the factor Xa inhibitor Xarelto will best fulfill the need for a convenient oral anticoagulant in the treatment of major thrombotic indications. These indications, which account for more than half of the total anticoagulant market, include stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation, the prevention and acute treatment of venous thromboembolism and acute coronary syndrome.
The report finds that the launch of simple-to-use agents, such as Xarelto, other factor Xa inhibitors, and oral thrombin inhibitors, will encourage new prescriptions in place of (and the switching of existing patients from) vitamin K antagonists whenever long-term anticoagulation is indicated. The market potential for new premium-priced oral anticoagulants is highest in the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation and in the secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism.
"The anticoagulant market is distinguished by an urgent need for safe and convenient oral anticoagulants," said Nikhil Mehta, analyst at Decision Resources. "A series of emerging thrombin and factor Xa inhibitors, led by Xarelto, are poised to fulfill this need by 2016 by replacing the unwieldy and inexpensive vitamin K antagonists and expanding the use of anticoagulation beyond the existing eligible patient population. In contrast, the market for injectable anticoagulants will be shaped by refinements rather than by major breakthroughs."
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