Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Merck's Januvia (sitagliptin) and Novartis's Galvus (vildagliptin) will achieve blockbuster status by 2015 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, joining the current market-leading blockbusters -- Takeda's Actos (pioglitazone) and GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia (rosiglitazone). However, all four of these drugs face extensive loss of market share by 2020 because of patent expiries and the emergence of biogeneric insulins.
The new special Pharmacor report Emerging Therapies in Type 2 Diabetes finds that overall growth in the type 2 diabetes market will be significantly constrained during the second half of the 2005-2020 study period. The loss of patent protection for a number of drugs and the emergence of biogeneric insulins has the potential to take away an estimated $10 billion in potential sales from Januvia, Galvus, Actos, Avandia, Aventis' Lantus, Novo Nordisk's Novolog, and Eli Lilly's Humalog by 2020. These factors will drive an overall decline in sales as the market matures in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
"In addition to the significant share that biogeneric insulins will garner, inhaled insulins will also become major market players during the forecast period," said Donny Wong, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources, Inc. "Leading the way in this class is Pfizer's Exubera, which was launched in the United States and the United Kingdom earlier this year. Although it is the first agent in this class to enter the market, we forecast that Exubera will be quickly overshadowed by other emerging inhaled insulins and, subsequently, by novel transdermal and oral insulin formulations. Novel drug classes, including transdermal and oral insulins, will account for 76% of the type 2 diabetes market by 2020."
The report also finds that drugs that stimulate the incretin pathway are drawing significant attention in the medical community. The first marketed drug with this mechanism of action, Amylin/Eli Lilly's Byetta (exenatide) has been highly successful despite its twice-daily injectable formulation. Although a once-weekly injectable formulation, Byetta LAR, is currently in clinical development, exenatide will be overshadowed by DPP-IV inhibitors, which affect the same pathway but are available in oral formulations.
About Type 2 Diabetes
Type 2 diabetes is one of the most highly active and competitive areas of drug development, with over 400 compounds in early- to late-stage development. Merck, Sanofi-Aventis, and Novo Nordisk have the largest and most robust pipelines of diabetes drugs and are poised to become future leaders in diabetes treatment.
About Decision Resources
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