Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that a drug with efficacy superior to that of sales leader memantine would earn up to a 50% patient share in the market to treat moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease. The currently available branded versions of memantine are Forest Laboratories' Namenda, Lundbeck's Ebixa and Merz/Grupo Grunenthal's Axura/Akatinol.
The new report entitled Alzheimer's Disease (Moderate to Severe): Incremental Improvements in Efficacy Can Lead to Large Commercial Opportunity finds that a symptomatic therapy with efficacy greater than that of memantine, as measured by the Severe Impairment Battery score at 28 weeks, would earn a patient share of 40-50% in the moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease market, according to surveyed neurologists. In addition to replacing memantine in most cases, physicians believe that, if such a therapy were launched, it would threaten a significant percentage of prescriptions of donepezil (Eisai/Pfizer's Aricept and Bracco's Memac) and the memantine/donepezil combination.
The report also finds that a therapy's effect on cognitive decline is the attribute that most influences the prescribing decisions of neurologists in treating moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease. Clinical data and interviewed experts indicate that Myriad Genetics' Flurizan, Elan/Wyeth's bapineuzumab, Medivation's Dimebon and Eli Lilly's LY-450139 all have advantages over sales- leading memantine on this attribute.
"Some agents, including Flurizan and bapineuzumab, will be used in combination with existing drugs rather than replacing them," said Nitasha Manchanda, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "Approximately one-third of the neurologists we surveyed said they will use Flurizan adjunctively and nearly half of the neurologists surveyed will use bapineuzumab as an adjunct to current therapies."
About the Report
Alzheimer's Disease (Moderate to Severe): Incremental Improvements in Efficacy Can Lead to Large Commercial Opportunity is a DecisionBase 2008 report from Decision Resources. DecisionBase 2008 combines market forecasts with clinical and commercial end points to assess market share projections in 35 indications. These outputs are driven by quantitative and qualitative primary research. DecisionBase 2008 provides detailed market share, patient share, and price-per-day projections for emerging drugs in development. The market share projections are based on prescriber surveys that compare physicians' expectations of a potential target product profile with an emerging product profile of the leading drugs in development.
The report can be purchased by contacting Decision Resources. Members of the media may request an interview with an analyst.
About Decision Resources
Decision Resources, Inc. (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in market research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources, Inc. company.
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SOURCE: Decision Resources
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