Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, forecasts that the Chinese type 2 diabetes drug market will more than triple by 2012. According to the new Emerging Markets report entitled Type 2 Diabetes in China, this growth will be fueled by increased access to health insurance, greater patient spending power and more aggressive treatment practice, leading to increased usage of newer agents such as the insulin analogues. Additionally, the number of prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes in China is among the highest in the world -- 62.5 million cases in 2007 -- a number that rivals that of the United States, Europe and Japan combined (48.5 million cases). The high prevalence rate in China reflects an aging population and urbanization-associated risk factors, such as diet and lack of physical activities.
"The Chinese government and medical associations are promoting guidelines published by the American Diabetes Association, the World Health Organization and the Chinese Society of Diabetes," said Victor Li, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources. "All guidelines advocate earlier and more-aggressive interventions in type 2 diabetes patients. We forecast that the patient population treated with polypharmacy will nearly double between 2007 and 2012."
The report also finds that three new type 2 diabetes agents with novel mechanisms -- Eli Lilly/Amylin's Byetta, Merck's Januvia and Novartis's Galvus -- are expected to launch in China by 2012. The combined sales of these three agents will surpass $270 million by 2012. However, the high cost of many antidiabetic therapies, particularly Western-branded drugs, is a major barrier to effective management of type 2 diabetes in China. Patient ability to pay for medications influences physician prescribing habits, particularly prescription of newer drugs such as the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma agonists and the insulin analogues, which are not reimbursed or are only partially reimbursed in some provinces.
About Emerging Markets - China
Emerging Markets - China is the first and only syndicated report series focusing on high-growth emerging markets with comprehensive disease-specific analysis. With these reports, biopharmaceutical companies can accomplish the following:
-- More accurately assess the commercial opportunity for Western brands in key pharmaceutical markets of China -- Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou -- and in the high-growth second-tier markets of Tianjin, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Jinan. -- Understand the physician treatment patterns and drivers of choice in key first- and second-tier cities based on primary research. -- Gain a clear perspective of the Chinese five-year market forecast at the drug level, broken out by urban and rural areas, and by sales from multinational and Chinese-based companies. About Decision Resources
Decision Resources, Inc. (www.decisionresources.com) is a world leader in research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Decision Resources is a Decision Resources, Inc. company.
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