Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that Shire's recently launched stimulant Vyvanse will become only the third blockbuster in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), helping to ensure that Shire's impressive ADHD portfolio will dominate this market through 2017.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder finds that Vyvanse will garner $1.2 billion in sales in 2017, owing in large part to the drug's robust efficacy, its approval for both children and adults, and its lower abuse potential compared with other first-line psychostimulants. Vyvanse and other Shire products, including Daytrana and the emerging nonstimulant agent Intuniv, will help secure Shire's dominance of the ADHD market, where it will hold a commanding 44 percent total market share in 2017 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. Shire's dominance will be maintained in spite of steep losses to generic competition in 2009 in the United States for its market-leading product, Adderall XR.
For more than 50 years, ADHD has been successfully treated with psychostimulants, most notably methylphenidate, which today is available in a wide variety of convenient preparations such as McNeil Pediatrics/Janssen-Cilag's Concerta/Concerta XL. However, in response to increasing clinician demand for drugs without abuse liability, industry focus has shifted toward the development of new nonstimulant therapies.
"Although the ADHD drug pipeline is largely free of psychostimulants--the drug class that dominates today's market--none of the many nonstimulants in development will fully satisfy clinician demand for a safer and more-effective alternative to the first-to-market nonstimulant, Eli Lilly's Strattera," said Jonathan Searles, analyst at Decision Resources. "Given their own limitations in efficacy and safety, emerging nonstimulants will be prescribed for niche segments or as adjunctive therapies, together earning less than 15 percent market share in 2017. Opportunity will remain, however, for drugs that demonstrate novel benefits, such as improving ADHD-related cognitive deficits, which is an emerging unmet need in the eyes of interviewed experts."
Additionally, improved diagnosis and treatment of adult ADHD will help sustain market growth from 2012 to 2017, encouraged in part by the release of improved diagnostic criteria and growing acceptance of the disorder. Nevertheless, ample opportunity will remain in this underserved and largely untapped subpopulation as only 21 percent of prevalent adult cases will be diagnosed across the major pharmaceutical markets in 2017, according to the report.
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