Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca's Onglyza will garner peak year blockbuster sales of more than $1 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor finding from the topic entitled Type 2 Diabetes reveals that, although it does not offer significant clinical benefit over Merck's Januvia, the uptake of Onglyza will be driven by its safety and tolerability, convenient administration and lack of weight gain associated with its use. Onglyza, which along with Januvia are the only two DPP-IV inhibitors approved for type 2 diabetes in the U.S. market, is expected to compete closely with Januvia following the decision by Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca to set Onglyza's price equal to that of Januvia.
"DPP-IV inhibitors have excellent tolerability profiles and carry a very low risk of hypoglycemia," said Decision Resources Analyst Christine Helliwell, Ph.D. "These attributes make both Onglyza and Januvia suitable for widespread use in the treatment of type 2 diabetes."
Incretin mimetics, such as DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues, hold the greatest promise for type 2 diabetes because these drug classes improve upon key areas of safety and efficacy. Two emerging GLP-1 analogues, Amylin/Eli Lilly/Alkermes' Byetta LAR and Novo Nordisk's Victoza, will compete closely for market share in type 2 diabetes over the next decade. Interviewed thought leaders indicate that they are more enthusiastic about Byetta LAR than Victoza because of Byetta LAR's significantly greater convenience, which will aid greatly in increasing compliance. As a result, Byetta LAR will garner peak year blockbuster sales of more than $1 billion while Victoza's peak year sales are expected to be between $250 and $500 million in the world's major markets.
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