Decision Resources, Inc, announces the publication of HIV 2000-Major and Emerging Markets. Increasing prevalence, persistent and resistant infection, and poor adherence continue to make HIV/AIDS a significant pharmaceutical market fraught with unmet needs. In the seven major markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan), the market for drugs to treat HIV was worth nearly $3.4 billion in 1999. The value of anti-HIV drug sales in these markets will grow strongly through 2009, driven by both increasing HIV/AIDS prevalence, as well as increasing use of new classes of anti-HIV drug therapies as additions to established regimens. We expect seven-market sales to reach $7.1 billion in 2009.

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More than 95% of the global burden of HIV has been assumed by the nations least equipped to deal with the costs of combating the disease. In many regions, the inherent nature of the epidemic is very different from that experienced in the developed world thus far. On a worldwide basis, about half of HIV infections are due to the 1C subtype, which appears to be more transmissible and possibly more lethal than HIV-1B, the primary strain infecting the major-market countries. Although HIV-1C has not yet made a major impact on the seven markets, it is impossible to predict where and when it will emerge in these nations. Therefore, in addition to the seven major markets typically discussed in a Pharmacor study, this study presents analyses of the five emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, South Africa, and Thailand. These countries were chosen for three reasons: HIV has made or will make a substantial impact on each of them; these nations represent the regions of Latin America, East Asia, South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, respectively, thereby permitting reasonable global coverage; and China and India embody more than 40% of the world population such that even moderate levels of HIV infection in these nations will have far-reaching implications. The overriding objective of these analyses is to determine how HIV/AIDS in the developing world will affect the global pharmaceutical industry.

Our analysis suggests that innovative approaches to pricing and new therapeutic regimens will result in substantial sales of anti-HIV agents to these countries over the 1999-2009 study period. The extent of this growth, however, will depend primarily on the degree to which these governments respond to the HIV crisis and the means by which they obtain anti-HIV therapy. We predict that didanosine (Bristol-Myers Squibb's Videx) plus hydroxyurea (Bristol-Myers Squibb's Hydrea) or lamivudine and zidovudine (Glaxo Wellcome's Combivir) with nevirapine (Boehringer Ingelheim's Viramune) will be the therapeutic interventions of choice in the developing world because of their cost-effectiveness and simplified administration schedules. Didanosine in combination with hydroxyurea is both potent and affordable, and Combivir, although lacking durability as a dual therapy, is effective when used with either a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or a protease inhibitor. Didanosine and the drugs that make up Combivir are older agents that may make marketing them at reduced prices more palatable. We forecast potential sales in 2004 in the five emerging markets of $6.3 billion for Combivir and $2.9 billion for nevirapine at 10% of the current U.S. price. Didanosine could draw sales of just over $2 billion if its price point were similarly reduced.

HIV 2000--Major and Emerging Markets is part of Infectious Disease, one of six Pharmacor services that evaluate the commercial potential of drugs in research and development.

Decision Resources, Inc., is a world leader in research publications, advisory services, and consulting designed to help clients shape strategy, allocate resources, and master their chosen markets. Founded as a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the company has provided strategic information services for 30 years, assessing industry trends in the international health care and pharmaceutical industries.

Contact: Frank Sama, 781.487.3753 (telephone), 781.487.5750 (fax), or sama@dresources.com (e-mail). In Europe, contact Francoise Bidart, +32.2.351.4082 (telephone), +32.2.351.2347 (fax), or fbidart@decisionresources.be (e-mail). In Japan, contact Makiko Yoshimoto, +81.3.5401.2615 (telephone), +81.3.5401.2617 (fax), or makiko@bl.mmtr.or.jp (e-mail).

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SOURCE: Decision Resources, Inc.

Contact: Frank Sama of Decision Resources, Inc, 781-487-3753,
sama@dresources.com

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