Decision Resources and Millennium Research Group have produced a new report that finds that Eli Lilly will emerge as the number one drug company in osteoporosis by 2011, largely by staying away from the increasingly competitive bisphosphonate segment. Eli Lilly, which will hold 29.7 percent of the osteoporosis market by the end of the forecast period, has two major brands -- neither of which belongs to the dominant bisphosphonate drug class -- in its osteoporosis product portfolio: the selective estrogen-receptor modulator (SERM) Evista and a parathyroid hormone analogue (PTH) Forteo. In the bisphosphonate market, traditional stalwarts Merck, Procter & Gamble and Sanofi-Aventis are increasingly being challenged by new, less-frequently dosed therapies, while operating under the looming threat of new drug classes and the genericization of the leading therapy.
"Both Evista and Forteo are patent-protected through the end of the forecast; thus they will provide a strong foundation for Eli Lilly's growth, especially considering Evista's new breast cancer prevention indication and increasing physician comfort with Forteo," said Matthew Runnalls, analyst at Millennium Research Group. "The growth driver in the latter years of the forecast, however, will be the company's second-generation SERM, arzoxifene. However, arzoxifene will come to market after Wyeth's second-generation SERM Viviant, and its novel hormone replacement therapy/SERM combination, Aprela, which will complicate arzoxifene's launch."
The report also finds that, despite retaining the continental European patent for Fosamax, Merck's market-leading position in bisphosphonates -- it generated more than $2 billion in osteoporosis revenues in 2006 -- will be decimated by generic versions of the drug in the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Merck will see its market share drop from 37.7 percent in 2006 to 9.1 percent in 2011. Lilly and a number of other companies are poised to fill the gap in this newly competitive market. Wyeth, Amgen, and Novartis will each more than double its market share by 2011. More than 20% of physicians surveyed for this report predict that Wyeth will be the most influential osteoporosis company over the next five years, thanks to the launch of Viviant and Aprela. Gynecologists, in particular, give the company high marks on its salesforce and physician and patient education. Novartis and Amgen will also gain significant share owing to a once-yearly injectable bisphosphonate (Novartis's Reclast/Aclasta) and a twice-yearly first-in-class biologic (Amgen's denosumab).
About Brands & Strategies
Brands & Strategies is the first and only report series to bring together all of the competitive information elements biopharmaceutical companies need to make informed decisions about their products and the best next-steps. Each report includes the following:
- Physician perceptions of companies and brand attributes - Physician preference for sources of information - Physician opinion of future strategies, messaging, and upcoming events - Overview of competitive landscape - Pipeline analysis by company within a specific disease - SWOT analysis on each brand - Brand lifecycle strategy, including clinical trial competitive analysis - Trend analysis of brand-specific messaging - Brand-specific, event-driven, five-year annualized market forecast - Country-specific, event-driven market share projections by company and brand - Drug class and brand vs. generics sales by country - Pricing analysis with company-specific strategy, price for all drugs over five years, impact of generics - Analysis of promotional spend for each product - Selling strategies based on clinical trials - Prevalent and diagnosed population by country About Millennium Research Group
Millennium Research Group (www.MRG.net), part of the Decision Resources, Inc., family, is a leading provider of strategic information to the healthcare sector. Focused on the medical device, pharmaceutical, and biotechnology industries, the company provides clients its specialized industry expertise through published reports and customized consulting services.
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SOURCE: Decision Resources
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