Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the launch and uptake of new anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies, most notably Elan/Wyeth's bapineuzumab and Eli Lilly's solanezumab, will be the main driver of robust 11 percent annual growth from 2008 to 2018 in the Alzheimer's disease drug market. Other key agents that will drive market growth include Baxter's Gammagard, Eli Lilly's semagacestat, and Pfizer/Medivation's Dimebon.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Alzheimer's Disease finds that bapineuzumab and solanezumab will together garner just over half of the overall Alzheimer's disease market in 2018. While these two monoclonal antibodies are expected to offer superior efficacy over other drugs in the market, their uptake will be initially slow following their launches, owing to potential safety concerns. Nevertheless, bapineuzumab and solanezumab will achieve combined sales of nearly $6 billion in 2018.
The Alzheimer's disease market is currently dominated by acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs), all of which only address cognitive symptoms but do not modify the course of the disease. In 2008, sales of these agents for Alzheimer's disease (excluding other forms of dementia) accounted for $2.7 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan--in 2018, they will represent only $1.7 billion in sales, according to the report. This decline will be attributed to increased generic AChEI competition, overall market expansion driven by increases in the drug-treated population and the commercialization of emerging therapies with the potential to modify the progression of the disease.
"Interviewed experts believe that the agents with the most clinical and commercial promise are the anti-beta amyloid monoclonal therapies such as bapineuzumab and solanezumab, which have the potential to slow the rate of neurodegeneration and cognitive decline," said Decision Resources Analyst Matthew Winton, Ph.D. "However, the efficacy and safety of these monoclonal antibodies has yet to be fully established."
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