Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the increased generic erosion of key drugs such as lamotrigine (GlaxoSmithKline's Lamictal, generics) and divalproex (Abbott/Sanofi-Aventis's Depakote/Abbott's Depakote ER, generics), combined with projected generic erosion of the atypical antipsychotic drug class will cause a precipitous $2.3 billion decline in the bipolar disorder drug market over the next decade.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Bipolar Disorder reveal that although patient share for atypical antipsychotics will increase through 2019, particularly in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan, sales of atypical antipsychotics will decline significantly over the forecast period owing to the generic erosion of key agents such as AstraZeneca/Astellas's Seroquel/AstraZeneca's Seroquel XR, Eli Lilly's Zyprexa, Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka Pharmaceutical's Abilify and Pfizer's Geodon.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings reveal that bipolar depression is the largest unmet need in bipolar disorder, as experts consistently indicate that few therapies achieve sufficient efficacy in this market segment. Two emerging atypical antipsychotics will likely gain approval for bipolar depression: Forest Laboratories/Gedeon Richter/Mitsubishi Pharma's cariprazine and Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma/Sepracor's (soon to be Sunovion Pharmaceuticals) lurasidone. Lurasidone, which is expected to gain approval for bipolar depression in 2012, will become a market leader in 2019.
"The bipolar depression market segment represents the greatest commercial opportunity and we expect that lurasidone will gain approval for bipolar depression in 2012, following its launch in 2011 for the treatment of schizophrenia," said Decision Resources Analyst Alana Simorellis, Ph.D. "Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma and Sepracor will differentiate lurasidone based on its efficacy in bipolar depression, as well as its potential for efficacy in cognitive symptoms, and its relatively mild weight gain profile compared with currently marketed atypical antipsychotics. As a result, we forecast lurasidone to garner peak year sales in the range of $500 million to $1 billion."
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